{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad705ba2-f8f0-479c-9277-4a7418256a9d", "symbol": "300679", "name": "Electric Connector Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.46, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.388, "architecture_energy": 38.003, "architecture_maturity": 54.032, "architecture_confidence": 61.385, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.46, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 19.93, "deceleration": 68.18, "rotation_down": 66.05, "downward_expansion": 42.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.397333, 48.680364, 51.061227, 49.048821 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.189999, "trend_reference": 47.08408, "distance_from_trend": -0.103943, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.59469, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.459933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007271, "excess_performance": -0.014671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007271, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83361918, "relative_activity": 0.914569, "balance": 0.940765, "dry_up": 1.024774, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.223203, "annualized_volatility": 0.823867, "from_high_reference": -0.431402, "from_low_reference": 0.314196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.08408, "fair_value_reference": 44.59469, "structural_low": 32.103275, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.088604, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031747, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.00361, "worst_return": -0.220483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.120038, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.130859, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036875, "worst_return": -0.436113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058649, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.074838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046802, "worst_return": -0.142244, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156107, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015237, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05252, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"direction": 21.529346, "energy": 16.657103, "activity_lines": [ 55.936667, 57.809395, 53.779295, 50.625579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.860001, "volume": 105997340, "typical_volume": 86431875.05, "trend": 47.700946, "fair_value": 44.541941, "relative_strength": -18.333488, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.256515, "energy": 18.700552, "activity_lines": [ 49.164001, 54.547548, 52.909532, 50.099432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.52, "volume": 97541489, "typical_volume": 89068120.95, "trend": 47.293532, "fair_value": 44.541382, "relative_strength": -23.525259, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.41512, "energy": 39.591186, "activity_lines": [ 43.433334, 50.943484, 51.713567, 49.378081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.189999, "volume": 83361918, "typical_volume": 91148880.95, "trend": 47.08408, "fair_value": 44.59469, "relative_strength": -15.459933, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.388168, "energy": 38.002598, "activity_lines": [ 41.397333, 48.680364, 51.061227, 49.048821 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }