{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad7c0683-7de3-4b8b-ba0e-fb91e41d7240", "symbol": "SXLE", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Energy Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.574, "architecture_energy": 42.823, "architecture_maturity": 7.432, "architecture_confidence": 68.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.14, "rotation_up": 67.13, "upward_expansion": 74.41, "deceleration": 61.85, "rotation_down": 11.1, "downward_expansion": 5.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.977249, 45.834, 45.68003, 45.647148 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.671249, "trend_reference": 44.98525, "distance_from_trend": 0.037479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.090508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293172, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.665077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095376, "excess_performance": 0.044141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075679, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293172, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008103, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056651, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.3242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131417, "relative_activity": 0.663322, "balance": 2.3242, "dry_up": 0.745053, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045536, "annualized_volatility": 0.277691, "from_high_reference": -0.089075, "from_low_reference": 0.41321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.98525, "fair_value_reference": 36.090508, "structural_low": 42.490002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.002035, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.021453, "regime_survival": 0.576923, "best_return": 0.1414, "worst_return": -0.184711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01601, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.020792, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.28104, "worst_return": -0.063467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015163, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.047898, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.316704, "worst_return": -0.135002, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 35.908096, "relative_strength": 11.489459, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.282437, "energy": 24.769213, "activity_lines": [ 45.7285, 45.143909, 45.451661, 45.306449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.57, "volume": 121575, "typical_volume": 207118.1, "trend": 44.671, "fair_value": 36.004322, "relative_strength": 8.346141, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.205434, "energy": 36.405832, "activity_lines": [ 46.648166, 45.572727, 45.61225, 45.518099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.671249, "volume": 131417, "typical_volume": 198119.45, "trend": 44.98525, "fair_value": 36.090508, "relative_strength": 5.665077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.574265, "energy": 42.822586, "activity_lines": [ 46.977249, 45.834, 45.68003, 45.647148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }