{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad827665-ea9e-40fd-acac-e8e0f13c6a1e", "symbol": "SGB3", "name": "WisdomTree Short GBP Long USD 3x Daily", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.571, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.923, "architecture_energy": 14.269, "architecture_maturity": 15.713, "architecture_confidence": 59.009, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.45, "rotation_up": 19.59, "upward_expansion": 28.86, "deceleration": 69.73, "rotation_down": 55.25, "downward_expansion": 30.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.620001, 44.049183, 43.912786, 43.855366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.080002, "trend_reference": 43.681, "distance_from_trend": -0.013759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.591059, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113417, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.04492, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048941, "excess_performance": -0.017338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013759, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008797, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113417, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035682, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015899, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.063566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1100, "relative_activity": 0.498358, "balance": 3.063566, "dry_up": 0.282818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032128, "annualized_volatility": 0.192093, "from_high_reference": -0.10362, "from_low_reference": 0.076139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.681, "fair_value_reference": 48.591059, "structural_low": 40.419998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000763, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.003993, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.101818, "worst_return": -0.064754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008136, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03902, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.074943, "worst_return": -0.088008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023525, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039052, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.053044, "worst_return": 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44.391273, 44.049834, 43.900301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.580002, "volume": 880, "typical_volume": 2270.95, "trend": 43.686667, "fair_value": 48.638014, "relative_strength": -9.145654, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.102601, "energy": 15.684502, "activity_lines": [ 44.016334, 44.255, 44.003905, 43.894506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.080002, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 2207.25, "trend": 43.681, "fair_value": 48.591059, "relative_strength": -10.04492, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.922805, "energy": 14.269484, "activity_lines": [ 43.620001, 44.049183, 43.912786, 43.855366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }