{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad8570d5-4bd0-493a-a41e-7f3eb76369e8", "symbol": "ALBOO", "name": "Boostheat SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.872, "architecture_energy": 40.451, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.045, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.33, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 17.29, "deceleration": 66.11, "rotation_down": 41.96, "downward_expansion": 67.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.555467, 0.544764, 0.587247, 0.666094 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.594, "trend_reference": 0.848167, "distance_from_trend": -0.299666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 199391.483622, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.999997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -76.570013, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.604, "excess_performance": -0.657311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.299666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.491415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.999997, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 2e-06, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.7657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119993, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.535239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 940, "relative_activity": 0.10896, "balance": 0.535239, "dry_up": 0.284715, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164206, "annualized_volatility": 2.276765, "from_high_reference": -0.9505, "from_low_reference": 0.85625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.848167, "fair_value_reference": 199391.483622, "structural_low": 0.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 56, "median_return": -0.181004, "positive_rate": 0.160714, "directional_follow_through": 0.696429, "median_excess_return": -0.189136, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 18999.0, "worst_return": -0.846154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.597751, "positive_rate": 0.157895, "directional_follow_through": 0.842105, "median_excess_return": -0.51909, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 1624.0, "worst_return": -0.990453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.818182, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.844839, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 19.0, "worst_return": -0.992617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.917069, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.899904, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.354839, "worst_return": -0.998658, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2022-01-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.21371, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-01-21", "end": "2022-03-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.444343, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-18", "end": "2022-09-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.430743, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-09-30", "end": "2022-10-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.835502, "energy": 61.222524, "activity_lines": [ 0.531467, 0.573527, 0.643347, 0.774812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.508, "volume": 1706, "typical_volume": 10048.6, "trend": 0.992233, "fair_value": 514776.08825, "relative_strength": -84.454472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.954508, "energy": 57.132282, "activity_lines": [ 0.522933, 0.554764, 0.62151, 0.740363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.49, "volume": 5830, "typical_volume": 9600.15, "trend": 0.9419, "fair_value": 322468.399083, "relative_strength": -83.454614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.740706, "energy": 57.977217, "activity_lines": [ 0.511067, 0.535891, 0.600779, 0.70796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.594, "volume": 1349, "typical_volume": 9313.75, "trend": 0.895033, "fair_value": 249391.479814, "relative_strength": -78.145347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.389249, "energy": 48.568996, "activity_lines": [ 0.534933, 0.539236, 0.592856, 0.685515 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.594, "volume": 940, "typical_volume": 8627.05, "trend": 0.848167, "fair_value": 199391.483622, "relative_strength": -76.570013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.872112, "energy": 40.450987, "activity_lines": [ 0.555467, 0.544764, 0.587247, 0.666094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }