{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad876dd1-081c-48bf-ad22-8e19f6b30211", "symbol": "NAB", "name": "National Australia Bank Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.87, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.934, "architecture_energy": 54.778, "architecture_maturity": 4.293, "architecture_confidence": 83.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.01, "rotation_up": 71.19, "upward_expansion": 43.16, "deceleration": 28.59, "rotation_down": 14.01, "downward_expansion": 27.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.13, 39.994545, 39.191809, 39.980478 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.23, "trend_reference": 41.053142, "distance_from_trend": 0.028667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.043623, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205069, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.23772, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.004931, "excess_performance": -0.068637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205069, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.660366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23508777, "relative_activity": 1.100232, "balance": 1.660366, "dry_up": 0.938799, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030948, "annualized_volatility": 0.278855, "from_high_reference": -0.127479, "from_low_reference": 0.173056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.053142, "fair_value_reference": 35.043623, "structural_low": 36.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006433, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.025935, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033158, "worst_return": -0.044575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018518, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.046035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126053, "worst_return": -0.003502, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.076408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.055139, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167333, "worst_return": 0.055578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"energy": 27.79692, "activity_lines": [ 39.655333, 38.753818, 38.770947, 39.878104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.330002, "volume": 23563040, "typical_volume": 21748277.95, "trend": 40.983775, "fair_value": 34.93202, "relative_strength": -1.115441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.050721, "energy": 34.919557, "activity_lines": [ 40.37, 39.324, 38.92714, 39.900077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.23, "volume": 23508777, "typical_volume": 21367104.15, "trend": 41.053142, "fair_value": 35.043623, "relative_strength": -2.23772, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.933997, "energy": 54.777715, "activity_lines": [ 41.13, 39.994545, 39.191809, 39.980478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }