{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad88acbb-7f5f-441a-ac41-9885c415c780", "symbol": "CEN", "name": "Contact Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.273, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.246, "architecture_energy": 30.044, "architecture_maturity": 15.202, "architecture_confidence": 90.684, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.49, "rotation_up": 20.72, "upward_expansion": 4.89, "deceleration": 48.66, "rotation_down": 53.73, "downward_expansion": 78.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.558, 7.575273, 7.692762, 7.719712 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.52, "trend_reference": 7.774704, "distance_from_trend": -0.032761, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.541384, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002836, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.431404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076188, "excess_performance": -0.139894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032761, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017541, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002836, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110349, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.095002, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47171, "relative_activity": 0.473587, "balance": 1.095002, "dry_up": 1.673193, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045827, "annualized_volatility": 0.233091, "from_high_reference": -0.114252, "from_low_reference": 0.063649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.774704, "fair_value_reference": 7.541384, "structural_low": 7.07, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.240229, "energy": 58.221253, "activity_lines": [ 7.470667, 7.598727, 7.709143, 7.739721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.75, "volume": 21711, "typical_volume": 99745.75, "trend": 7.785534, "fair_value": 7.536452, "relative_strength": -3.874737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.993495, "energy": 32.827645, "activity_lines": [ 7.559333, 7.608182, 7.712952, 7.736843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.52, "volume": 47171, "typical_volume": 99603.75, "trend": 7.774704, "fair_value": 7.541384, "relative_strength": -9.431404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.245603, "energy": 30.043965, "activity_lines": [ 7.558, 7.575273, 7.692762, 7.719712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }