{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad91bdc3-cfe9-4300-9997-3ab830b530f0", "symbol": "EJUL", "name": "INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST EMERGING MARKETS POWER BUFFER ETF JULY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.346, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.901, "architecture_energy": 21.633, "architecture_maturity": 13.323, "architecture_confidence": 54.145, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.33, "rotation_up": 17.9, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 65.34, "rotation_down": 55.85, "downward_expansion": 39.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.340907, 30.481864, 30.655928, 30.578861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.81, "trend_reference": 30.477517, "distance_from_trend": 0.010909, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.328415, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.0602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013987, "excess_performance": -0.111638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010909, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013892, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013987, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421314, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130328, "relative_activity": 0.61624, "balance": 0.421314, "dry_up": 1.208097, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019263, "annualized_volatility": 0.089123, "from_high_reference": -0.039064, "from_low_reference": 0.106284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.477517, "fair_value_reference": 26.328415, "structural_low": 29.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.002979, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.030473, "worst_return": -0.024515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000123, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001604, "worst_return": -0.001358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.053578, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122267, "worst_return": -0.01511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"close": 30.85, "volume": 331245, "typical_volume": 174346.4, "trend": 30.412747, "fair_value": 26.153022, "relative_strength": -6.426138, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.909916, "energy": 21.606696, "activity_lines": [ 30.853, 30.93046, 30.800093, 30.6421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.84, "volume": 318851, "typical_volume": 189593.1, "trend": 30.429413, "fair_value": 26.19533, "relative_strength": -7.883123, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.969569, "energy": 23.705789, "activity_lines": [ 30.485667, 30.725513, 30.729055, 30.605148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.8712, "volume": 476118, "typical_volume": 212227.4, "trend": 30.437787, "fair_value": 26.23444, "relative_strength": -7.08578, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.056401, "energy": 40.497776, "activity_lines": [ 30.214733, 30.54842, 30.664226, 30.569134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.23, "volume": 96700, "typical_volume": 208637.5, "trend": 30.451453, "fair_value": 26.278479, "relative_strength": -6.807976, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.345998, "energy": 31.716102, "activity_lines": [ 30.148987, 30.455996, 30.633429, 30.555729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.81, "volume": 130328, "typical_volume": 211489.1, "trend": 30.477517, "fair_value": 26.328415, "relative_strength": -8.0602, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.901386, "energy": 21.632727, "activity_lines": [ 30.340907, 30.481864, 30.655928, 30.578861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }