{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad93f2de-eae2-4aaa-a243-a0333e7cf4ef", "symbol": "ALAIR", "name": "Groupe Airwell Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.327, "architecture_energy": 23.42, "architecture_maturity": 52.843, "architecture_confidence": 69.258, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.45, "rotation_up": 33.13, "upward_expansion": 64.72, "deceleration": 77.2, "rotation_down": 26.41, "downward_expansion": 14.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.363, 1.391909, 1.350319, 1.229258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.335, "trend_reference": 1.093033, "distance_from_trend": 0.221372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.474878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.46058, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.867017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.940407, "excess_performance": 0.887096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.221372, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.46058, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1147, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.940407, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.806506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73508, "relative_activity": 0.32341, "balance": 2.806506, "dry_up": 0.41367, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157591, "annualized_volatility": 1.349344, "from_high_reference": -0.364286, "from_low_reference": 1.597276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.093033, "fair_value_reference": 2.474878, "structural_low": 0.514, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020266, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.00111, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.228814, "worst_return": -0.2625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.129032, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.125767, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.320755, "worst_return": -0.635556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.274194, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.190024, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.083019, "worst_return": -0.574026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106977, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.670984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.233766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042373, 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"fair_value": 2.581897, "relative_strength": 14.612237, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.916023, "energy": 46.725031, "activity_lines": [ 1.451333, 1.388909, 1.268595, 1.154643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.47, "volume": 78762, "typical_volume": 223917.95, "trend": 1.085867, "fair_value": 2.554462, "relative_strength": 12.376695, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.352104, "energy": 63.514593, "activity_lines": [ 1.469333, 1.412727, 1.303524, 1.17977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.47, "volume": 83958, "typical_volume": 224703.9, "trend": 1.091033, "fair_value": 2.527026, "relative_strength": 12.014036, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.306096, "energy": 58.337772, "activity_lines": [ 1.475333, 1.432, 1.334595, 1.204553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.23, "volume": 139865, "typical_volume": 228183.0, "trend": 1.091033, "fair_value": 2.498372, "relative_strength": -7.108364, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.466919, "energy": 30.64426, "activity_lines": [ 1.392, 1.402909, 1.339019, 1.213518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.335, "volume": 73508, "typical_volume": 227290.35, "trend": 1.093033, "fair_value": 2.474878, "relative_strength": -0.867017, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.326758, "energy": 23.419675, "activity_lines": [ 1.363, 1.391909, 1.350319, 1.229258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }