{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad96fab3-fafd-4a46-93d9-621306cac5ec", "symbol": "688308", "name": "OKE Precision Cutting Tools Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.854, "architecture_energy": 36.516, "architecture_maturity": 59.778, "architecture_confidence": 47.269, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.94, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 21.78, "deceleration": 72.7, "rotation_down": 65.32, "downward_expansion": 37.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.662455, 120.955206, 126.118155, 116.954578 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 102.559998, "trend_reference": 100.022854, "distance_from_trend": 0.025366, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.581937, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.72897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 51.917953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.926009, "excess_performance": 0.969213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025366, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.544174, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.72897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.652619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.51918, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.847066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.926009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.473363, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66649185, "relative_activity": 1.256152, "balance": 1.473363, "dry_up": 1.130552, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.286895, "annualized_volatility": 1.086085, "from_high_reference": -0.470193, "from_low_reference": 4.496249 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.022854, "fair_value_reference": 37.581937, "structural_low": 46.209999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.081957, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05024, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.07172, "worst_return": -0.235633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.090173, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.133476, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090173, "worst_return": 0.090173, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.262264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.263197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.262264, "worst_return": 0.262264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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156.296776, 134.903951, 116.627542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 106.736923, "volume": 57138445, "typical_volume": 52386001.2, "trend": 93.842854, "fair_value": 36.561477, "relative_strength": 76.424849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.527479, "energy": 29.11572, "activity_lines": [ 142.80434, 149.124785, 133.874712, 117.625453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.010002, "volume": 68691828, "typical_volume": 53177253.8, "trend": 95.956855, "fair_value": 36.909649, "relative_strength": 46.817045, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.202112, "energy": 21.597771, "activity_lines": [ 121.024632, 139.146502, 131.287495, 117.507205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.489998, "volume": 47460671, "typical_volume": 52290841.45, "trend": 97.658854, "fair_value": 37.1704, "relative_strength": 28.593741, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.091988, "energy": 30.886139, "activity_lines": [ 102.508257, 127.776217, 127.721182, 116.638375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.559998, "volume": 66649185, "typical_volume": 53058203.7, "trend": 100.022854, "fair_value": 37.581937, "relative_strength": 51.917953, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.854055, "energy": 36.515657, "activity_lines": [ 97.662455, 120.955206, 126.118155, 116.954578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }