{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad9753fb-dda7-4d82-8ceb-8732831dcf4d", "symbol": "HLP", "name": "Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.378, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.917, "architecture_energy": 60.119, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.701, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.0, "rotation_up": 72.89, "upward_expansion": 56.95, "deceleration": 15.21, "rotation_down": 14.34, "downward_expansion": 27.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.219333, 1.036418, 0.89511, 0.89588 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.3, "trend_reference": 0.905816, "distance_from_trend": 0.43517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.399958, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.056246, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.262136, "excess_performance": 0.074682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.43517, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145537, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.403722, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.090562, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.430407, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.262136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.236898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 223006, "relative_activity": 0.034458, "balance": 1.236898, "dry_up": 0.0766, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.224497, "annualized_volatility": 1.662085, "from_high_reference": -0.244186, "from_low_reference": 2.800058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.905816, "fair_value_reference": 1.399958, "structural_low": 0.3421, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.100118, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.150915, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.137546, "worst_return": -0.487952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.422912, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.521173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.244981, "worst_return": -0.600843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.252375, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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35.994991, "activity_lines": [ 1.0556, 0.855407, 0.814143, 0.846793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.23, "volume": 456063, "typical_volume": 6490657.6, "trend": 0.88815, "fair_value": 1.412009, "relative_strength": 9.255481, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.803301, "energy": 50.906641, "activity_lines": [ 1.1488, 0.946593, 0.85177, 0.869309 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.3, "volume": 223006, "typical_volume": 6471905.2, "trend": 0.905816, "fair_value": 1.399958, "relative_strength": 9.056246, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.917288, "energy": 60.119086, "activity_lines": [ 1.219333, 1.036418, 0.89511, 0.89588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }