{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad9fc95f-3674-4a89-ad60-4b9d5cf0bd1e", "symbol": "RAJRILTD", "name": "Raj Rayon Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.897, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.739, "architecture_energy": 10.978, "architecture_maturity": 29.536, "architecture_confidence": 51.903, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.58, "rotation_up": 22.43, "upward_expansion": 22.6, "deceleration": 66.86, "rotation_down": 45.0, "downward_expansion": 31.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.334, 21.636909, 21.374952, 21.37071 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.85, "trend_reference": 21.413333, "distance_from_trend": 0.020392, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.410769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.471595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": 0.043709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127359, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073306, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384887, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58384, "relative_activity": 1.681216, "balance": 0.384887, "dry_up": 1.327545, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052737, "annualized_volatility": 0.299477, "from_high_reference": -0.243945, "from_low_reference": 0.125708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.413333, "fair_value_reference": 24.410769, "structural_low": 19.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.058269, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.044746, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.301057, "worst_return": -0.10673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.111476, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.078316, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.14569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032062, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245459, "worst_return": -0.806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020194, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075128, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047189, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.84, "volume": 41380, "typical_volume": 33306.1, "trend": 21.453, "fair_value": 24.780256, "relative_strength": -5.703254, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.064645, "energy": 9.519944, "activity_lines": [ 21.731334, 21.655636, 21.336762, 21.384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.809999, "volume": 49614, "typical_volume": 33995.9, "trend": 21.413, "fair_value": 24.607564, "relative_strength": -7.795697, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.405695, "energy": 17.750293, "activity_lines": [ 21.275333, 21.560727, 21.304619, 21.342516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.85, "volume": 58384, "typical_volume": 34727.25, "trend": 21.413333, "fair_value": 24.410769, "relative_strength": -3.471595, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.738776, "energy": 10.978062, "activity_lines": [ 21.334, 21.636909, 21.374952, 21.37071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }