{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ada4500b-0f38-4e19-9357-060c1583d15e", "symbol": "HEQ", "name": "John Hancock Hedged equity & Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.344, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.962, "architecture_energy": 41.49, "architecture_maturity": 10.69, "architecture_confidence": 78.09, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.87, "rotation_up": 55.71, "upward_expansion": 80.8, "deceleration": 52.37, "rotation_down": 21.21, "downward_expansion": 5.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.528, 11.472348, 11.407557, 11.26664 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.63, "trend_reference": 11.083511, "distance_from_trend": 0.049306, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.31184, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248948, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.513791, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07868, "excess_performance": -0.046945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049306, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037828, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248948, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00684, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07868, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104188, "relative_activity": 0.589024, "balance": 0.688667, "dry_up": 0.683062, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02932, "annualized_volatility": 0.132451, "from_high_reference": -0.003334, "from_low_reference": 0.209193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.083511, "fair_value_reference": 9.31184, "structural_low": 10.275449, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.00687, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.008593, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.050239, "worst_return": -0.043314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.039602, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.023006, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.070387, "worst_return": -0.071232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05545, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.051523, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.107202, "worst_return": -0.087843, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.933057, "energy": 27.067004, "activity_lines": [ 11.386667, 11.398321, 11.267192, 11.12924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.47, "volume": 189319, "typical_volume": 204125.75, "trend": 10.967196, "fair_value": 9.245977, "relative_strength": -0.005401, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.733323, "energy": 31.242961, "activity_lines": [ 11.418, 11.415643, 11.302325, 11.16425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.59, "volume": 81845, "typical_volume": 193062.45, "trend": 11.009765, "fair_value": 9.267871, "relative_strength": 1.601923, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.074192, "energy": 43.604057, "activity_lines": [ 11.488667, 11.449968, 11.346611, 11.204431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.39, "volume": 107935, "typical_volume": 181875.7, "trend": 11.045986, "fair_value": 9.28969, "relative_strength": -1.212943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.007579, "energy": 35.780591, "activity_lines": [ 11.475333, 11.439152, 11.367726, 11.228962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.63, "volume": 104188, "typical_volume": 176882.55, "trend": 11.083511, "fair_value": 9.31184, "relative_strength": -2.513791, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.961723, "energy": 41.489554, "activity_lines": [ 11.528, 11.472348, 11.407557, 11.26664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }