{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adab8bfb-267d-4bd4-a899-7f1f51a3b96e", "symbol": "002137", "name": "Shenzhen Sea Star Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.768, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.781, "architecture_energy": 37.689, "architecture_maturity": 43.53, "architecture_confidence": 56.284, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.24, "rotation_up": 18.75, "upward_expansion": 12.43, "deceleration": 63.98, "rotation_down": 65.45, "downward_expansion": 47.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.742667, 8.721273, 8.904279, 8.864258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.02, "trend_reference": 8.884656, "distance_from_trend": -0.09732, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.323089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.953616, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204569, "excess_performance": -0.211969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09732, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014915, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.095166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204569, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.057494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170858822, "relative_activity": 1.23276, "balance": 2.057494, "dry_up": 1.476363, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192819, "annualized_volatility": 0.879113, "from_high_reference": -0.361973, "from_low_reference": 0.237654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.884656, "fair_value_reference": 7.323089, "structural_low": 6.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.036023, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.01746, "regime_survival": 0.380952, "best_return": 0.297998, "worst_return": -0.301028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002389, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.036741, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.489838, "worst_return": -0.389049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.097403, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.165189, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.827236, "worst_return": -0.315712, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065401, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085271, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 7.312792, "relative_strength": -17.866553, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.542483, "energy": 22.609673, "activity_lines": [ 9.908667, 9.890247, 9.344464, 9.175412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.7, "volume": 196774868, "typical_volume": 129507792.25, "trend": 8.944737, "fair_value": 7.311314, "relative_strength": -24.733385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.129323, "energy": 19.603149, "activity_lines": [ 8.718667, 9.353475, 9.127703, 9.026609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.31, "volume": 170615859, "typical_volume": 132989709.95, "trend": 8.901703, "fair_value": 7.313683, "relative_strength": -16.024227, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.603792, "energy": 31.325047, "activity_lines": [ 7.988667, 8.961273, 8.97861, 8.921142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.02, "volume": 170858822, "typical_volume": 138598612.15, "trend": 8.884656, "fair_value": 7.323089, "relative_strength": -11.953616, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.781285, "energy": 37.689387, "activity_lines": [ 7.742667, 8.721273, 8.904279, 8.864258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }