{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adb18996-2a36-43e9-95fb-2f994d2522f3", "symbol": "MGS", "name": "Magis S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.353, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.26, "architecture_energy": 19.595, "architecture_maturity": 56.893, "architecture_confidence": 79.62, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.1, "rotation_up": 19.12, "upward_expansion": 11.33, "deceleration": 51.23, "rotation_down": 44.53, "downward_expansion": 63.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.67, 9.713636, 9.691667, 9.707527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.4, "trend_reference": 9.758333, "distance_from_trend": -0.036721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.059879, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150081, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.807094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.030928, "excess_performance": -0.20182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007572, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150081, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.280084, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8134, "relative_activity": 0.837965, "balance": 0.280084, "dry_up": 0.539851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038462, "annualized_volatility": 0.146404, "from_high_reference": -0.22314, "from_low_reference": 0.05618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.758333, "fair_value_reference": 11.059879, "structural_low": 9.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010363, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.001871, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.077519, "worst_return": -0.040816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.06726, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016563, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.149984, "worst_return": -0.015464, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.015481, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.015481, "worst_return": -0.015481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.115398, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026549, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.184874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", 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14.85038, "activity_lines": [ 9.773333, 9.720909, 9.695238, 9.716774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.6, "volume": 5239, "typical_volume": 9311.45, "trend": 9.706667, "fair_value": 11.089248, "relative_strength": -17.727358, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.558619, "energy": 5.861695, "activity_lines": [ 9.716667, 9.707273, 9.684048, 9.710215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.9, "volume": 5727, "typical_volume": 9343.8, "trend": 9.73, "fair_value": 11.080633, "relative_strength": -13.919831, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.394553, "energy": 7.047786, "activity_lines": [ 9.766667, 9.749091, 9.70381, 9.722688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.85, "volume": 1861, "typical_volume": 9375.6, "trend": 9.755, "fair_value": 11.071698, "relative_strength": -14.264728, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.838252, "energy": 8.138575, "activity_lines": [ 9.79, 9.775455, 9.719286, 9.73043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.4, "volume": 8134, "typical_volume": 9706.85, "trend": 9.758333, "fair_value": 11.059879, "relative_strength": -19.807094, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.259541, "energy": 19.595098, "activity_lines": [ 9.67, 9.713636, 9.691667, 9.707527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }