{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adb57160-129b-46c3-90ad-fbc0c4a983e2", "symbol": "TNON", "name": "Tenon Medical Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.062, "architecture_energy": 85.023, "architecture_maturity": 80.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.451, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 12.59, "upward_expansion": 19.13, "deceleration": 39.19, "rotation_down": 80.89, "downward_expansion": 97.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.176327, 0.250398, 0.416573, 0.51431 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.131, "trend_reference": 0.634548, "distance_from_trend": -0.793554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.460823, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.970633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -87.069841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.804827, "excess_performance": -0.992281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.793554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.970633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.870698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.45725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.804827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.094039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16155458, "relative_activity": 0.697374, "balance": 2.094039, "dry_up": 0.259636, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.9394, "annualized_volatility": 1.434664, "from_high_reference": -0.924713, "from_low_reference": 0.047992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.634548, "fair_value_reference": 4.460823, "structural_low": 0.125001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.16921, "positive_rate": 0.258065, "directional_follow_through": 0.709677, "median_excess_return": -0.165391, "regime_survival": 0.967742, "best_return": 0.685039, "worst_return": -0.51606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.230392, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.270053, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.247863, "worst_return": -0.748784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.448529, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.571192, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.025641, "worst_return": -0.797405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -80.951579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.213769, "energy": 89.162714, "activity_lines": [ 0.27738, 0.396024, 0.538696, 0.614298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1898, "volume": 2193534, "typical_volume": 22404501.6, "trend": 0.688382, "fair_value": 4.743329, "relative_strength": -81.380468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.418004, "energy": 91.291605, "activity_lines": [ 0.23522, 0.341131, 0.496811, 0.580239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.198, "volume": 1942465, "typical_volume": 22479876.05, "trend": 0.662515, "fair_value": 4.588188, "relative_strength": -80.075779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.193452, "energy": 88.029884, "activity_lines": [ 0.206473, 0.297133, 0.458442, 0.548601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.131, "volume": 16155458, "typical_volume": 23166124.45, "trend": 0.634548, "fair_value": 4.460823, "relative_strength": -87.069841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.062148, "energy": 85.023173, "activity_lines": [ 0.176327, 0.250398, 0.416573, 0.51431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }