{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adb691c0-9cc1-4cde-9272-397d3a4ed1d6", "symbol": "ITSA3", "name": "Ita\u00fasa S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.741, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.604, "architecture_energy": 15.938, "architecture_maturity": 14.183, "architecture_confidence": 61.372, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.72, "rotation_up": 49.92, "upward_expansion": 41.7, "deceleration": 34.68, "rotation_down": 22.59, "downward_expansion": 16.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.686667, 13.609561, 13.46299, 13.500834 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 13.524811, "distance_from_trend": -0.009228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.373355, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.429584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.732256, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046728, "excess_performance": 0.01032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.429584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057323, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049094, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046728, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643361, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 533200, "relative_activity": 0.884671, "balance": 0.643361, "dry_up": 0.782466, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03849, "annualized_volatility": 0.215495, "from_high_reference": -0.097468, "from_low_reference": 0.432051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.524811, "fair_value_reference": 9.373355, "structural_low": 12.543852, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065541, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.008697, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.085457, "worst_return": -0.055924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056573, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.012342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217428, "worst_return": -0.09587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033911, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266724, "worst_return": -0.08118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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13.405505, 13.454205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.65, "volume": 352100, "typical_volume": 626795.0, "trend": 13.414617, "fair_value": 9.28253, "relative_strength": 7.190271, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.127158, "energy": 47.704443, "activity_lines": [ 13.76, 13.487943, 13.426697, 13.473381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.92, "volume": 557000, "typical_volume": 625730.0, "trend": 13.479862, "fair_value": 9.329242, "relative_strength": 6.632044, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.449002, "energy": 46.365919, "activity_lines": [ 13.824, 13.605931, 13.471697, 13.505986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.4, "volume": 533200, "typical_volume": 602710.0, "trend": 13.524811, "fair_value": 9.373355, "relative_strength": 5.732256, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.604278, "energy": 15.938472, "activity_lines": [ 13.686667, 13.609561, 13.46299, 13.500834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }