{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adbbce84-1bc9-45fc-a2f9-d5090d57d586", "symbol": "UNIONBANK", "name": "Union Bank of India", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.079, "architecture_energy": 36.077, "architecture_maturity": 8.518, "architecture_confidence": 91.025, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.12, "rotation_up": 62.84, "upward_expansion": 42.59, "deceleration": 29.72, "rotation_down": 19.98, "downward_expansion": 22.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 174.328669, 170.986271, 168.630877, 170.792492 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 183.600006, "trend_reference": 173.786315, "distance_from_trend": 0.05647, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 134.438479, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36568, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.370747, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030708, "excess_performance": 0.074417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05647, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089768, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.143707, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063845, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030708, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.823686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70025951, "relative_activity": 1.064924, "balance": 3.823686, "dry_up": 1.347641, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044845, "annualized_volatility": 0.329567, "from_high_reference": -0.106526, "from_low_reference": 0.473042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 173.786315, "fair_value_reference": 134.438479, "structural_low": 151.730219, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029227, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006785, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.266118, "worst_return": -0.185697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.171074, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.095615, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.408534, "worst_return": -0.106483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.234, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.173335, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.619441, "worst_return": -0.06182, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 170.5, "volume": 102438784, "typical_volume": 66697223.55, "trend": 172.598315, "fair_value": 133.249984, "relative_strength": 11.072833, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.846654, "energy": 15.252843, "activity_lines": [ 167.716645, 166.912973, 167.106776, 170.216575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 171.0, "volume": 50991411, "typical_volume": 65330787.25, "trend": 173.074981, "fair_value": 133.813663, "relative_strength": 8.005319, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.839499, "energy": 12.103002, "activity_lines": [ 168.966, 167.939522, 167.261969, 170.113458 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 183.600006, "volume": 70025951, "typical_volume": 65756742.9, "trend": 173.786315, "fair_value": 134.438479, "relative_strength": 14.370747, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.078626, "energy": 36.077433, "activity_lines": [ 174.328669, 170.986271, 168.630877, 170.792492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }