{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "adc21c63-bc71-4a94-9044-01c1739b0711",
    "symbol": "NAE",
    "name": "New Age Exploration Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -35.218,
    "architecture_energy": 15.833,
    "architecture_maturity": 34.414,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.927,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.18,
        "rotation_up": 25.22,
        "upward_expansion": 16.4,
        "deceleration": 36.48,
        "rotation_down": 37.73,
        "downward_expansion": 61.73
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.002167,
        0.0022,
        0.002162,
        0.002361
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 0.002,
    "trend_reference": 0.002683,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.254658,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.004006,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.5008,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -32.695447,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.2,
    "excess_performance": -0.263706,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.254658,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.100559,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.5008,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034569,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.326954,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046933,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.2,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.113897,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 32072729,
      "relative_activity": 1.307384,
      "balance": 0.113897,
      "dry_up": 1.056167,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.442308,
      "annualized_volatility": 2.463935,
      "from_high_reference": -0.666667,
      "from_low_reference": 1.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.002683,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.004006,
      "structural_low": 0.001,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.272727,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.272727,
        "median_excess_return": -0.059146,
        "regime_survival": 0.590909,
        "best_return": 0.6,
        "worst_return": -0.375,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.142857,
        "positive_rate": 0.222222,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.222222,
        "median_excess_return": -0.219762,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.25,
        "worst_return": -0.466667,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.25,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.366761,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.0,
        "worst_return": -0.428571,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.333333,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.392951,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.25,
        "worst_return": -0.541667,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.111111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.25,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.666667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.25,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.142857,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.285714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.666667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.4,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.333333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.2,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
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      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.003,
        "volume": 14094089,
        "typical_volume": 35294726.15,
        "trend": 0.002833,
        "fair_value": 0.004077,
        "relative_strength": 2.98421,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -0.854471,
        "energy": 8.333011,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.002533,
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          0.002255,
          0.002515
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.002,
        "volume": 53479539,
        "typical_volume": 33260329.25,
        "trend": 0.0028,
        "fair_value": 0.004058,
        "relative_strength": -30.20636,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -19.258216,
        "energy": 19.487701,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.002433,
          0.002255,
          0.002214,
          0.002461
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.002,
        "volume": 3993172,
        "typical_volume": 29012250.1,
        "trend": 0.00275,
        "fair_value": 0.004032,
        "relative_strength": -31.060657,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -23.671685,
        "energy": 13.586817,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.002333,
          0.002227,
          0.002183,
          0.00241
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.002,
        "volume": 32072729,
        "typical_volume": 24531994.2,
        "trend": 0.002683,
        "fair_value": 0.004006,
        "relative_strength": -32.695447,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.217605,
        "energy": 15.833483,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.002167,
          0.0022,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}