{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adc89ba6-7e02-4dff-84fa-d2df9cdaa9e6", "symbol": "900920", "name": "Shanghai New Power Automotive Technology Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.95, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.104, "architecture_energy": 56.258, "architecture_maturity": 30.243, "architecture_confidence": 82.604, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.43, "rotation_up": 25.24, "upward_expansion": 9.99, "deceleration": 55.76, "rotation_down": 54.59, "downward_expansion": 83.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.286333, 0.287945, 0.306357, 0.320566 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.301, "trend_reference": 0.3332, "distance_from_trend": -0.096639, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.231481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.20302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.081796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051657, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300324, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25026, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03203, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4005166, "relative_activity": 0.943132, "balance": 0.494317, "dry_up": 0.624875, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062101, "annualized_volatility": 0.374024, "from_high_reference": -0.258621, "from_low_reference": 0.440191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.3332, "fair_value_reference": 0.231481, "structural_low": 0.262, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.37931, "median_excess_return": -0.000352, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.150685, "worst_return": -0.298932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.017303, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.049983, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.490323, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.105851, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.100296, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.382789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.272, "volume": 2173000, "typical_volume": 5342943.7, "trend": 0.330333, "fair_value": 0.231346, "relative_strength": -1.26585, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.895187, "energy": 90.027552, "activity_lines": [ 0.2832, 0.295655, 0.318829, 0.329213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.272, "volume": 1330262, "typical_volume": 4795055.25, "trend": 0.330867, "fair_value": 0.231244, "relative_strength": -2.850535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.133604, "energy": 87.465454, "activity_lines": [ 0.277733, 0.289236, 0.312838, 0.325449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.286, "volume": 3106122, "typical_volume": 4329450.8, "trend": 0.331833, "fair_value": 0.231308, "relative_strength": 1.26087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.743247, "energy": 82.429555, "activity_lines": [ 0.279467, 0.286782, 0.308724, 0.322555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.301, "volume": 4005166, "typical_volume": 4246667.5, "trend": 0.3332, "fair_value": 0.231481, "relative_strength": 3.20302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.104089, "energy": 56.257843, "activity_lines": [ 0.286333, 0.287945, 0.306357, 0.320566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }