{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adcdb471-791e-4f08-9ac5-7c76b2776d15", "symbol": "002703", "name": "Zhejiang Shibao Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.371, "architecture_energy": 50.048, "architecture_maturity": 48.733, "architecture_confidence": 87.025, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.74, "rotation_up": 23.77, "upward_expansion": 7.56, "deceleration": 58.89, "rotation_down": 54.41, "downward_expansion": 80.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.889333, 14.052545, 15.632667, 17.006387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.09, "trend_reference": 18.903333, "distance_from_trend": -0.201728, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.136592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.601051, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26138, "excess_performance": -0.26878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201728, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012004, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298951, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26138, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.505778, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 333129121, "relative_activity": 1.998911, "balance": 1.505778, "dry_up": 1.196866, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149105, "annualized_volatility": 0.627627, "from_high_reference": -0.47513, "from_low_reference": 0.334218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.903333, "fair_value_reference": 14.136592, "structural_low": 11.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.081819, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.063933, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.015504, "worst_return": -0.107166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.139165, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.031414, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.242694, "worst_return": -0.090123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098902, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.080825, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.172811, "worst_return": -0.137177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.440357, "energy": 83.764406, "activity_lines": [ 12.986, 14.179091, 16.120667, 17.574538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.57, "volume": 202759074, "typical_volume": 163042480.6, "trend": 19.087, "fair_value": 14.137271, "relative_strength": -11.157354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.780958, "energy": 66.260002, "activity_lines": [ 13.364667, 14.007455, 15.832429, 17.264258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.09, "volume": 333129121, "typical_volume": 166655271.75, "trend": 18.903333, "fair_value": 14.136592, "relative_strength": -12.601051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.370555, "energy": 50.047664, "activity_lines": [ 13.889333, 14.052545, 15.632667, 17.006387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }