{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adcf5578-0210-42bd-a2bc-23f280bd580d", "symbol": "601162", "name": "Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.44, "architecture_energy": 13.707, "architecture_maturity": 19.824, "architecture_confidence": 64.238, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.98, "rotation_up": 41.17, "upward_expansion": 37.18, "deceleration": 39.21, "rotation_down": 17.11, "downward_expansion": 40.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.665333, 3.601818, 3.550429, 3.616301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.63, "trend_reference": 3.747667, "distance_from_trend": -0.031397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.859038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.25729, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.121065, "excess_performance": -0.077862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059351, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089133, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.401984, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 656510449, "relative_activity": 0.996691, "balance": 1.401984, "dry_up": 1.670072, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073533, "annualized_volatility": 0.259387, "from_high_reference": -0.406863, "from_low_reference": 0.190164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.747667, "fair_value_reference": 3.859038, "structural_low": 3.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018369, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.022193, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.245847, "worst_return": -0.149123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009836, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.056423, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.118421, "worst_return": -0.100877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.083014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214912, "worst_return": -0.006579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.05, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0926, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.584127, "worst_return": -0.149123, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015528, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.077441, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193023, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1002, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08114, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.928274, "energy": 24.197624, "activity_lines": [ 3.66, 3.526545, 3.534667, 3.629763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.71, "volume": 735914406, "typical_volume": 654933532.95, "trend": 3.765333, "fair_value": 3.855385, "relative_strength": -11.69987, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.8258, "energy": 17.160864, "activity_lines": [ 3.686, 3.573636, 3.545762, 3.625032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.63, "volume": 656510449, "typical_volume": 658690351.55, "trend": 3.747667, "fair_value": 3.859038, "relative_strength": -15.25729, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.440049, "energy": 13.707154, "activity_lines": [ 3.665333, 3.601818, 3.550429, 3.616301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }