{ "ticker": { "uuid": "add0772a-552f-461b-a3ea-890bb9614262", "symbol": "INCREDIBLE", "name": "Incredible Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.591, "architecture_energy": 28.499, "architecture_maturity": 13.357, "architecture_confidence": 92.767, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.23, "rotation_up": 17.92, "upward_expansion": 2.17, "deceleration": 49.81, "rotation_down": 50.48, "downward_expansion": 75.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.989333, 33.175818, 33.871762, 34.009312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.509998, "trend_reference": 34.461667, "distance_from_trend": -0.056633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.659295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.377088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.089866, "excess_performance": -0.046157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089866, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.917345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36664, "relative_activity": 1.174392, "balance": 0.917345, "dry_up": 1.239968, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079005, "annualized_volatility": 0.307171, "from_high_reference": -0.385096, "from_low_reference": 0.156939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.461667, "fair_value_reference": 39.659295, "structural_low": 28.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.025316, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.00763, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.165152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023166, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.063381, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.227824, "worst_return": -0.089962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.152913, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009774, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.432432, "worst_return": -0.204633, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 39.495321, "relative_strength": -11.463782, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.317632, "energy": 43.795822, "activity_lines": [ 33.268001, 33.979273, 34.237809, 34.497204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.18, "volume": 10220, "typical_volume": 54832.75, "trend": 35.052667, "fair_value": 39.546474, "relative_strength": -11.576836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.807329, "energy": 44.843613, "activity_lines": [ 33.157334, 33.717091, 34.152381, 34.362193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.389999, "volume": 62782, "typical_volume": 32625.15, "trend": 34.861333, "fair_value": 39.587115, "relative_strength": -8.649227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.203856, "energy": 30.994741, "activity_lines": [ 33.211333, 33.568727, 34.095524, 34.254925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.150002, "volume": 45179, "typical_volume": 30815.4, "trend": 34.605667, "fair_value": 39.622372, "relative_strength": -11.325265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.092348, "energy": 25.294388, "activity_lines": [ 33.215334, 33.411455, 34.014952, 34.144516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.509998, "volume": 36664, "typical_volume": 31219.55, "trend": 34.461667, "fair_value": 39.659295, "relative_strength": -13.377088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.590552, "energy": 28.499219, "activity_lines": [ 32.989333, 33.175818, 33.871762, 34.009312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }