{ "ticker": { "uuid": "add4daa8-0805-4295-ae39-5dbaa51806be", "symbol": "TOR", "name": "Torque Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.83, "architecture_energy": 85.65, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.15, "rotation_up": 18.03, "upward_expansion": 21.26, "deceleration": 37.36, "rotation_down": 70.29, "downward_expansion": 96.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.200667, 0.218091, 0.280357, 0.315 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.33725, "distance_from_trend": -0.347665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.202327, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.02286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185185, "excess_performance": -0.248891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.347665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087349, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.386114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.97224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185185, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.149699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6210159, "relative_activity": 0.852134, "balance": 0.149699, "dry_up": 0.70947, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175699, "annualized_volatility": 0.901788, "from_high_reference": -0.607143, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.33725, "fair_value_reference": 0.202327, "structural_low": 0.165, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023126, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.411765, "worst_return": -0.38125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.177778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.184825, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.52381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.222222, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.245607, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.047619, "worst_return": -0.416667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.318, 0.372762, 0.368129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.25, "volume": 691561, "typical_volume": 10208294.4, "trend": 0.352917, "fair_value": 0.20066, "relative_strength": -22.162705, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.712667, "energy": 76.798841, "activity_lines": [ 0.260667, 0.297636, 0.360131, 0.36136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.23, "volume": 8675393, "typical_volume": 10477709.9, "trend": 0.350417, "fair_value": 0.201077, "relative_strength": -28.404849, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.607679, "energy": 80.150147, "activity_lines": [ 0.247333, 0.278182, 0.345619, 0.35343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.195, "volume": 3871092, "typical_volume": 10203443.9, "trend": 0.347083, "fair_value": 0.201333, "relative_strength": -39.195785, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.413611, "energy": 93.056884, "activity_lines": [ 0.227, 0.256273, 0.327881, 0.343403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.19, "volume": 5371709, "typical_volume": 9957419.55, "trend": 0.343417, "fair_value": 0.20159, "relative_strength": -40.436793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.939623, "energy": 91.572077, "activity_lines": [ 0.211, 0.238545, 0.310333, 0.333269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 5228861, "typical_volume": 7872519.8, "trend": 0.33975, "fair_value": 0.201814, "relative_strength": -44.616051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.811608, "energy": 91.74411, "activity_lines": [ 0.197, 0.223182, 0.29269, 0.322726 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 6210159, "typical_volume": 7287771.35, "trend": 0.33725, "fair_value": 0.202327, "relative_strength": -34.02286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.830483, "energy": 85.650012, "activity_lines": [ 0.200667, 0.218091, 0.280357, 0.315 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }