{ "ticker": { "uuid": "add76eb3-a5a4-436c-b9ba-6a9d3e6198f6", "symbol": "SDWD", "name": "iShares MSCI World Screened UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.396, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.144, "architecture_energy": 58.926, "architecture_maturity": 56.574, "architecture_confidence": 71.393, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.88, "rotation_up": 53.74, "upward_expansion": 79.63, "deceleration": 66.7, "rotation_down": 26.52, "downward_expansion": 8.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.181467, 12.115022, 12.001624, 11.785481 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.53, "trend_reference": 11.550492, "distance_from_trend": 0.084802, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.423669, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329631, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.983234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116756, "excess_performance": 0.06552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084802, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032727, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329631, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013756, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029832, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.128731, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225278, "relative_activity": 0.807672, "balance": 1.128731, "dry_up": 1.007317, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019964, "annualized_volatility": 0.139458, "from_high_reference": -0.000957, "from_low_reference": 0.224336 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.550492, "fair_value_reference": 9.423669, "structural_low": 10.328, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.015974, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.005393, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.057243, "worst_return": -0.092281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022555, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006749, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126789, "worst_return": -0.062885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.081037, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.035614, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.149436, "worst_return": -0.173751, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 270443.3, "trend": 11.452125, "fair_value": 9.327376, "relative_strength": 1.574091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.26, "energy": 52.195065, "activity_lines": [ 12.0572, 12.044072, 11.845296, 11.65278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.979, "volume": 213377, "typical_volume": 277207.6, "trend": 11.479158, "fair_value": 9.357504, "relative_strength": 0.017187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.619966, "energy": 46.303184, "activity_lines": [ 12.034333, 12.0349, 11.884993, 11.686772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.988, "volume": 88576, "typical_volume": 274184.45, "trend": 11.508858, "fair_value": 9.388489, "relative_strength": -1.132598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.511839, "energy": 39.314545, "activity_lines": [ 12.021333, 12.024843, 11.920484, 11.719601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.53, "volume": 225278, "typical_volume": 278922.75, "trend": 11.550492, "fair_value": 9.423669, "relative_strength": 2.983234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.144115, "energy": 58.926263, "activity_lines": [ 12.181467, 12.115022, 12.001624, 11.785481 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }