{ "ticker": { "uuid": "add7bade-799f-4716-8924-79571083d66e", "symbol": "JEMA", "name": "JPMorgan ActiveBuilders Emerging Markets Equity ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.182, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.586, "architecture_energy": 15.56, "architecture_maturity": 61.947, "architecture_confidence": 87.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.19, "rotation_up": 17.68, "upward_expansion": 45.06, "deceleration": 87.76, "rotation_down": 36.85, "downward_expansion": 27.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.870413, 60.745673, 60.789997, 59.464108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.76, "trend_reference": 57.685137, "distance_from_trend": 0.053304, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.784058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.454143, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.536305, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123729, "excess_performance": -0.063725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053304, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078821, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.454143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005363, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123729, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.344573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 991348, "relative_activity": 1.570788, "balance": 3.344573, "dry_up": 1.421695, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057823, "annualized_volatility": 0.27783, "from_high_reference": -0.088782, "from_low_reference": 0.4208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.685137, "fair_value_reference": 41.784058, "structural_low": 49.925, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007681, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.025225, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155712, "worst_return": -0.045978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027535, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.048367, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.241026, "worst_return": -0.006133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.088775, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089113, "worst_return": 0.000777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014682, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078415, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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1.926655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.869309, "energy": 22.427107, "activity_lines": [ 61.319333, 61.826215, 60.547263, 58.955992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.0294, "volume": 1113582, "typical_volume": 569095.5, "trend": 57.069487, "fair_value": 41.448431, "relative_strength": 3.678493, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.722191, "energy": 20.277774, "activity_lines": [ 60.230467, 61.330042, 60.597919, 59.1036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.2645, "volume": 1187375, "typical_volume": 611189.45, "trend": 57.367137, "fair_value": 41.60856, "relative_strength": 3.272218, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.959812, "energy": 18.776233, "activity_lines": [ 59.67934, 60.888307, 60.639969, 59.245214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.76, "volume": 991348, "typical_volume": 631114.95, "trend": 57.685137, "fair_value": 41.784058, "relative_strength": 0.536305, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.585697, "energy": 15.560291, "activity_lines": [ 59.870413, 60.745673, 60.789997, 59.464108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }