{ "ticker": { "uuid": "addb0f63-63b7-4914-9635-b9a28eef22e9", "symbol": "DTE", "name": "Deutsche Telekom AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.406, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.485, "architecture_energy": 17.673, "architecture_maturity": 61.946, "architecture_confidence": 70.249, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.62, "rotation_up": 32.49, "upward_expansion": 21.77, "deceleration": 43.83, "rotation_down": 22.92, "downward_expansion": 58.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.374667, 26.930727, 27.357856, 28.061956 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.85, "trend_reference": 28.646422, "distance_from_trend": 0.007107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.759353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119982, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.431783, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.017345, "excess_performance": -0.191592, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003922, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119982, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022324, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034203, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.843998, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12756, "relative_activity": 1.235801, "balance": 1.843998, "dry_up": 1.24188, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04826, "annualized_volatility": 0.280764, "from_high_reference": -0.129624, "from_low_reference": 0.158169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.646422, "fair_value_reference": 25.759353, "structural_low": 24.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01114, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.1887, "worst_return": -0.080467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024565, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.178689, "worst_return": -0.113312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.204579, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.129342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22132, "worst_return": 0.04513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": -25.934104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.879533, "energy": 76.829972, "activity_lines": [ 26.074667, 26.865455, 27.822296, 28.404311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 12087, "typical_volume": 9936.4, "trend": 28.614063, "fair_value": 25.569445, "relative_strength": -20.681521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.421529, "energy": 72.1963, "activity_lines": [ 26.320667, 26.840727, 27.658721, 28.314812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.32, "volume": 18701, "typical_volume": 10180.75, "trend": 28.604452, "fair_value": 25.62198, "relative_strength": -23.612775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.116722, "energy": 63.190698, "activity_lines": [ 26.347334, 26.66, 27.439147, 28.166808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.73, "volume": 7731, "typical_volume": 10014.5, "trend": 28.600758, "fair_value": 25.68368, "relative_strength": -21.694737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.946619, "energy": 39.677437, "activity_lines": [ 26.522, 26.578727, 27.284393, 28.045876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.85, "volume": 12756, "typical_volume": 10322.05, "trend": 28.646422, "fair_value": 25.759353, "relative_strength": -17.431783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.484522, "energy": 17.673218, "activity_lines": [ 27.374667, 26.930727, 27.357856, 28.061956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }