{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ade20cc9-0c82-4fdd-8f5c-5081c60f1a67", "symbol": "HPS-A", "name": "Hammond Power Solutions Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.45, "architecture_energy": 21.183, "architecture_maturity": 63.092, "architecture_confidence": 75.004, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.74, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 41.98, "deceleration": 87.68, "rotation_down": 45.22, "downward_expansion": 35.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 269.260663, 287.550074, 293.453302, 276.383826 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 268.359985, "trend_reference": 250.515155, "distance_from_trend": 0.071233, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 137.578242, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.950599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.75354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.360183, "excess_performance": 0.239762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.950599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.720039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.167535, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.578784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.360183, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762422, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 271100, "relative_activity": 0.779908, "balance": 0.762422, "dry_up": 0.898721, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141201, "annualized_volatility": 0.622044, "from_high_reference": -0.24718, "from_low_reference": 1.428774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 250.515155, "fair_value_reference": 137.578242, "structural_low": 166.360001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.087293, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.085496, "regime_survival": 0.45, "best_return": 0.522749, "worst_return": -0.190321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.311959, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.304394, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.759579, "worst_return": -0.263978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.282828, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.44266, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.219848, "worst_return": -0.190663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138351, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051484, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"energy": 21.789718, "activity_lines": [ 292.917334, 304.400246, 296.571842, 274.585996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 250.690002, "volume": 584500, "typical_volume": 360060.0, "trend": 247.06566, "fair_value": 136.218683, "relative_strength": 13.550698, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.787176, "energy": 16.299594, "activity_lines": [ 275.678001, 293.924752, 294.331982, 275.009999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 268.359985, "volume": 271100, "typical_volume": 347605.0, "trend": 250.515155, "fair_value": 137.578242, "relative_strength": 16.75354, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.450145, "energy": 21.182892, "activity_lines": [ 269.260663, 287.550074, 293.453302, 276.383826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }