{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ade2be8d-eb3f-479b-9cf3-7b329ef9f262", "symbol": "COM", "name": "Catenon, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.041, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.574, "architecture_energy": 15.438, "architecture_maturity": 31.366, "architecture_confidence": 65.799, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.14, "rotation_up": 15.38, "upward_expansion": 15.72, "deceleration": 57.46, "rotation_down": 47.28, "downward_expansion": 62.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.989333, 0.9888, 1.005219, 1.002551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.99, "trend_reference": 1.0072, "distance_from_trend": -0.017077, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.912968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084375, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.308662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074766, "excess_performance": -0.199197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084375, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105085, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074766, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989422, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65034, "relative_activity": 1.062204, "balance": 0.989422, "dry_up": 1.390825, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098135, "annualized_volatility": 0.41628, "from_high_reference": -0.220472, "from_low_reference": 0.164706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.0072, "fair_value_reference": 0.912968, "structural_low": 0.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01217, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.022097, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.210811, "worst_return": -0.248227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.056806, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.105321, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.359551, "worst_return": -0.288828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.160494, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.121545, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.224719, "worst_return": -0.34829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.248649, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.28449, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.382716, "worst_return": -0.532529, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.233332, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175758, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.244139, "energy": 39.763789, "activity_lines": [ 0.966267, 1.0012, 1.004076, 1.005067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.08, "volume": 226023, "typical_volume": 54000.0, "trend": 1.012867, "fair_value": 0.91709, "relative_strength": -11.283369, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.162287, "energy": 15.163343, "activity_lines": [ 0.9984, 1.012, 1.012095, 1.009484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.98, "volume": 120940, "typical_volume": 55787.4, "trend": 1.009533, "fair_value": 0.914952, "relative_strength": -17.738627, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.15251, "energy": 14.156342, "activity_lines": [ 0.994533, 1.003164, 1.010257, 1.007363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.99, "volume": 68910, "typical_volume": 57765.1, "trend": 1.0082, "fair_value": 0.913564, "relative_strength": -17.564101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.501193, "energy": 9.19949, "activity_lines": [ 0.996, 0.998691, 1.009419, 1.006103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.97, "volume": 85732, "typical_volume": 60420.85, "trend": 1.006867, "fair_value": 0.913171, "relative_strength": -19.106751, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.044401, "energy": 16.233418, "activity_lines": [ 0.99, 0.991673, 1.006486, 1.003639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.99, "volume": 65034, "typical_volume": 61225.55, "trend": 1.0072, "fair_value": 0.912968, "relative_strength": -18.308662, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.57404, "energy": 15.437513, "activity_lines": [ 0.989333, 0.9888, 1.005219, 1.002551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }