{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ade3b937-0b1c-4acd-8f6e-6907f747f983", "symbol": "JAT", "name": "Jatcorp Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.72, "architecture_energy": 17.045, "architecture_maturity": 40.393, "architecture_confidence": 65.786, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.91, "rotation_up": 26.0, "upward_expansion": 13.01, "deceleration": 42.96, "rotation_down": 25.64, "downward_expansion": 58.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.127455, 0.131476, 0.133839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.137667, "distance_from_trend": -0.05569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.353109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.631841, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.945304, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.133333, "excess_performance": -0.197039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.631841, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148864, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.053554, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4565, "relative_activity": 0.103403, "balance": 2.053554, "dry_up": 0.211207, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106509, "annualized_volatility": 0.411675, "from_high_reference": -0.638889, "from_low_reference": 0.181818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.137667, "fair_value_reference": 0.353109, "structural_low": 0.115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.012027, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.506849, "worst_return": -0.236364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.012272, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 1.516667, "worst_return": -0.545455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.089286, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.103135, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.516667, "worst_return": -0.636364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.208122, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.315068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.28972, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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41.68456, "activity_lines": [ 0.125, 0.127727, 0.133119, 0.135452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 2676, "typical_volume": 52534.35, "trend": 0.1385, "fair_value": 0.355673, "relative_strength": -25.075719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.976521, "energy": 26.349985, "activity_lines": [ 0.127333, 0.127364, 0.132571, 0.134914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 2470, "typical_volume": 50576.8, "trend": 0.138167, "fair_value": 0.354391, "relative_strength": -24.585402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.890656, "energy": 17.545317, "activity_lines": [ 0.129, 0.127273, 0.132024, 0.134366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 4565, "typical_volume": 44147.55, "trend": 0.137667, "fair_value": 0.353109, "relative_strength": -24.945304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.719946, "energy": 17.044806, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.127455, 0.131476, 0.133839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }