{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ade49e8c-f6b9-4734-ac6b-75b6b1ee2daa", "symbol": "002581", "name": "Shandong Sinobioway Biomedicine Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.373, "architecture_energy": 59.78, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.457, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.25, "rotation_up": 29.82, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 47.51, "downward_expansion": 78.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.483333, 3.483818, 4.125286, 4.927204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.67, "trend_reference": 5.886333, "distance_from_trend": -0.376522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.016154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.633592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.364222, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.501359, "excess_performance": -0.508758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.376522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192325, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.633592, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.473642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.501359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727163, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32848085, "relative_activity": 1.099283, "balance": 0.727163, "dry_up": 1.34923, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159925, "annualized_volatility": 0.645469, "from_high_reference": -0.603243, "from_low_reference": 0.203279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.886333, "fair_value_reference": 10.016154, "structural_low": 3.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.012121, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.031032, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.382312, "worst_return": -0.362963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.050619, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.071089, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.150476, "worst_return": -0.493333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.125392, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.140831, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333565, "worst_return": -0.25195, "sufficient": true }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.63, "volume": 75689606, "typical_volume": 31380345.25, "trend": 6.314333, "fair_value": 10.305833, "relative_strength": -48.229169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.693179, "energy": 66.789808, "activity_lines": [ 3.468667, 3.661091, 4.68681, 5.454452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.22, "volume": 31401888, "typical_volume": 30103928.5, "trend": 6.154, "fair_value": 10.205513, "relative_strength": -53.515004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.882135, "energy": 67.303156, "activity_lines": [ 3.374667, 3.529818, 4.455048, 5.254817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.42, "volume": 21327808, "typical_volume": 29552664.45, "trend": 6.014, "fair_value": 10.105641, "relative_strength": -49.109683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.029232, "energy": 63.261539, "activity_lines": [ 3.394667, 3.475273, 4.267714, 5.07843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.67, "volume": 32848085, "typical_volume": 29881373.7, "trend": 5.886333, "fair_value": 10.016154, "relative_strength": -47.364222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.372677, "energy": 59.780189, "activity_lines": [ 3.483333, 3.483818, 4.125286, 4.927204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }