{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ade67ded-315f-4200-af4a-62f3eb1930da", "symbol": "HDMV", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III HORIZON MANAGED VOLATILITY DEV INTL", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.065, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.23, "architecture_energy": 89.627, "architecture_maturity": 10.421, "architecture_confidence": 62.028, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.7, "rotation_up": 86.95, "upward_expansion": 97.86, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.17, "downward_expansion": 19.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.859607, 38.245287, 37.708023, 37.553895 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 39.4617, "trend_reference": 37.394962, "distance_from_trend": 0.055268, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.942598, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27532, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.00779, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038176, "excess_performance": -0.087449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055268, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025051, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27532, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031832, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038176, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.247645, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3196, "relative_activity": 0.803086, "balance": 1.247645, "dry_up": 0.716206, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018249, "annualized_volatility": 0.147308, "from_high_reference": -0.001728, "from_low_reference": 0.170763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.394962, "fair_value_reference": 30.942598, "structural_low": 35.7726, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.008927, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.014482, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.115747, "worst_return": -0.087336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.02754, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.048422, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.146834, "worst_return": -0.063035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024993, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.08533, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.156089, "worst_return": -0.013691, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 37.151762, "fair_value": 30.767992, "relative_strength": -1.865785, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.897599, "energy": 71.334954, "activity_lines": [ 38.022793, 37.549181, 37.316266, 37.289322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.0612, "volume": 1328, "typical_volume": 3875.8, "trend": 37.270268, "fair_value": 30.854502, "relative_strength": -0.748656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.901135, "energy": 83.11463, "activity_lines": [ 38.441833, 37.878508, 37.499218, 37.412512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.4617, "volume": 3196, "typical_volume": 3979.65, "trend": 37.394962, "fair_value": 30.942598, "relative_strength": -3.00779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.2301, "energy": 89.626532, "activity_lines": [ 38.859607, 38.245287, 37.708023, 37.553895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }