{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adea34ce-dc0f-41e2-a208-b4dd555615a6", "symbol": "9801", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core MSCI China Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.239, "architecture_energy": 20.504, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.622, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.3, "rotation_up": 36.64, "upward_expansion": 20.68, "deceleration": 44.09, "rotation_down": 22.5, "downward_expansion": 57.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.129867, 3.082545, 3.109467, 3.152951 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.192, "trend_reference": 3.2398, "distance_from_trend": -0.014754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.796329, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.864173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068845, "excess_performance": -0.035263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.141497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003294, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.183722, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13600, "relative_activity": 0.162466, "balance": 0.183722, "dry_up": 0.827858, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035955, "annualized_volatility": 0.187885, "from_high_reference": -0.165272, "from_low_reference": 0.127915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.2398, "fair_value_reference": 2.796329, "structural_low": 2.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.015253, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": 0.003872, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.18386, "worst_return": -0.124691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059677, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.006194, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.156522, "worst_return": -0.148241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.132054, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.00098, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.08185, "worst_return": -0.143719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053351, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.167445, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": 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-76.448998, "energy": 81.974585, "activity_lines": [ 2.9928, 3.060873, 3.1372, 3.207841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.038, "volume": 19800, "typical_volume": 85380.0, "trend": 3.288267, "fair_value": 2.779342, "relative_strength": -4.170902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.16557, "energy": 75.904993, "activity_lines": [ 2.996267, 3.046364, 3.122505, 3.190456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.132, "volume": 102400, "typical_volume": 87390.0, "trend": 3.278667, "fair_value": 2.784081, "relative_strength": -2.748309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.403284, "energy": 55.559076, "activity_lines": [ 3.0372, 3.052109, 3.118429, 3.180374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.026, "volume": 113200, "typical_volume": 89560.0, "trend": 3.265333, "fair_value": 2.787142, "relative_strength": -7.441023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.848242, "energy": 43.887343, "activity_lines": [ 3.040533, 3.041891, 3.105419, 3.164073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.152, "volume": 48000, "typical_volume": 86920.0, "trend": 3.251067, "fair_value": 2.79151, "relative_strength": -6.916123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.250217, "energy": 22.156465, "activity_lines": [ 3.085067, 3.058509, 3.105238, 3.156761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.192, "volume": 13600, "typical_volume": 83710.0, "trend": 3.2398, "fair_value": 2.796329, "relative_strength": -4.864173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.239336, "energy": 20.503636, "activity_lines": [ 3.129867, 3.082545, 3.109467, 3.152951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }