{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adeb1c81-fd26-4127-b0bf-338ff6f7e40a", "symbol": "EBAY34", "name": "eBay Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.509, "architecture_energy": 30.726, "architecture_maturity": 66.118, "architecture_confidence": 95.098, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.16, "rotation_up": 34.84, "upward_expansion": 62.11, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 21.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 285.207339, 286.308006, 282.28635, 272.450276 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 290.410004, "trend_reference": 260.697746, "distance_from_trend": 0.113972, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 186.234013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.559382, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.494119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.187929, "excess_performance": 0.244978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113972, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.559382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.114941, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165223, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.187929, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.768018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 340, "relative_activity": 2.164227, "balance": 4.768018, "dry_up": 0.816359, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042631, "annualized_volatility": 0.361779, "from_high_reference": -0.032805, "from_low_reference": 0.404036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 260.697746, "fair_value_reference": 186.234013, "structural_low": 206.839404, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047575, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012059, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.099578, "worst_return": -0.169231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00509, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.133958, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.087251, "worst_return": -0.076196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.051763, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.205159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118646, "worst_return": -0.092292, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 181.667054, "relative_strength": 9.865123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.989251, "energy": 67.869002, "activity_lines": [ 291.52001, 288.691405, 275.976277, 265.492857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 285.880005, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 134.25, "trend": 255.73176, "fair_value": 182.781651, "relative_strength": 8.173641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.327868, "energy": 62.565781, "activity_lines": [ 290.700008, 288.664829, 278.184926, 267.565851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 273.0, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 136.6, "trend": 257.285585, "fair_value": 183.868993, "relative_strength": 3.287629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.952403, "energy": 47.822534, "activity_lines": [ 285.349339, 285.848873, 278.831158, 268.679931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 284.540009, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 140.1, "trend": 259.224077, "fair_value": 185.040445, "relative_strength": 5.668981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.611419, "energy": 35.202616, "activity_lines": [ 284.458673, 285.438007, 280.396618, 270.438281 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 290.410004, "volume": 340, "typical_volume": 157.1, "trend": 260.697746, "fair_value": 186.234013, "relative_strength": 11.494119, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.509487, "energy": 30.725955, "activity_lines": [ 285.207339, 286.308006, 282.28635, 272.450276 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }