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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.368, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.499, "architecture_energy": 11.824, "architecture_maturity": 29.157, "architecture_confidence": 71.956, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.4, "rotation_up": 28.37, "upward_expansion": 59.63, "deceleration": 83.71, "rotation_down": 26.21, "downward_expansion": 14.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.34, 86.203426, 85.459154, 84.807286 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 83.42, "trend_reference": 84.257884, "distance_from_trend": -0.009944, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 71.002254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.174892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.300848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006959, "excess_performance": -0.118666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013317, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.174892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113008, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4042905, "relative_activity": 0.859141, "balance": 0.624916, "dry_up": 1.091574, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06259, "annualized_volatility": 0.241858, "from_high_reference": -0.087408, "from_low_reference": 0.100439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.257884, "fair_value_reference": 71.002254, "structural_low": 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86.2, "volume": 4008207, "typical_volume": 4747272.95, "trend": 84.33078, "fair_value": 70.504463, "relative_strength": -7.185177, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.222364, "energy": 44.138928, "activity_lines": [ 87.200072, 86.055421, 84.896704, 84.439034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 87.72, "volume": 4488955, "typical_volume": 4712307.55, "trend": 84.389492, "fair_value": 70.617284, "relative_strength": -3.869661, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.997337, "energy": 42.47281, "activity_lines": [ 87.404964, 86.574378, 85.258568, 84.657694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.04, "volume": 6828598, "typical_volume": 4789351.6, "trend": 84.417908, "fair_value": 70.756038, "relative_strength": -3.790356, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.647248, "energy": 28.16342, "activity_lines": [ 87.345333, 86.926399, 85.532402, 84.828694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.06, "volume": 5186248, "typical_volume": 4794287.15, "trend": 84.393925, "fair_value": 70.886206, "relative_strength": -6.691444, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.729822, "energy": 18.151048, "activity_lines": [ 86.461333, 86.768814, 85.582942, 84.870119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.42, "volume": 4042905, "typical_volume": 4705752.8, "trend": 84.257884, "fair_value": 71.002254, "relative_strength": -11.300848, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.499181, "energy": 11.823895, "activity_lines": [ 85.34, 86.203426, 85.459154, 84.807286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }