{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adf56961-fe15-4672-8dbe-90aec9de9858", "symbol": "600516", "name": "FangDa Carbon New Material Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.505, "architecture_energy": 62.869, "architecture_maturity": 10.973, "architecture_confidence": 84.961, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.93, "rotation_up": 9.88, "upward_expansion": 13.95, "deceleration": 37.35, "rotation_down": 65.08, "downward_expansion": 84.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.121333, 5.342773, 5.437827, 5.546762 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.19, "trend_reference": 5.685536, "distance_from_trend": -0.087157, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.183193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.070321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097391, "excess_performance": -0.054187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087157, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031891, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035106, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097391, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.865324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225638824, "relative_activity": 0.834342, "balance": 0.865324, "dry_up": 0.822997, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095497, "annualized_volatility": 0.486575, "from_high_reference": -0.288066, "from_low_reference": 0.094937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.685536, "fair_value_reference": 5.183193, "structural_low": 4.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.018974, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.011269, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.324676, "worst_return": -0.224111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.049275, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.028089, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.091904, "worst_return": -0.290837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099088, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054372, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.3668, "worst_return": -0.312749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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5.662202, 5.649847, 5.713868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.97, "volume": 237838807, "typical_volume": 382395968.0, "trend": 5.747203, "fair_value": 5.201653, "relative_strength": -6.954684, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.488347, "energy": 31.137329, "activity_lines": [ 5.438247, 5.546962, 5.574676, 5.661877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.02, "volume": 239974076, "typical_volume": 336338355.8, "trend": 5.72487, "fair_value": 5.194246, "relative_strength": -7.213194, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.462005, "energy": 53.330136, "activity_lines": [ 5.232, 5.454337, 5.510647, 5.614961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.18, "volume": 186831090, "typical_volume": 288836682.75, "trend": 5.702203, "fair_value": 5.187737, "relative_strength": -4.673877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.184863, "energy": 59.756308, "activity_lines": [ 5.132, 5.397969, 5.469999, 5.579808 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.19, "volume": 225638824, "typical_volume": 270439363.3, "trend": 5.685536, "fair_value": 5.183193, "relative_strength": -7.070321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.505288, "energy": 62.86942, "activity_lines": [ 5.121333, 5.342773, 5.437827, 5.546762 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }