{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "adf7dbe6-ac81-4d49-a2e7-2f5a8642e8d9",
    "symbol": "VK",
    "name": "Vallourec S.A.",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 73.32,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -42.088,
    "architecture_energy": 34.967,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.696,
    "architecture_confidence": 60.401,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.75,
        "rotation_up": 17.96,
        "upward_expansion": 17.15,
        "deceleration": 62.85,
        "rotation_down": 62.14,
        "downward_expansion": 44.48
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        20.352001,
        20.826728,
        22.095476,
        21.996398
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 18.540001,
    "trend_reference": 21.356333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.131873,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 15.620298,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186917,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.956039,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.00108,
    "excess_performance": -0.052231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.131873,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094794,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.186917,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.43026,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08956,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.426569,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00108,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.550974,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5029929,
      "relative_activity": 1.490913,
      "balance": 0.550974,
      "dry_up": 1.347702,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.09966,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.44047,
      "from_high_reference": -0.32996,
      "from_low_reference": 0.256523
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 21.356333,
      "fair_value_reference": 15.620298,
      "structural_low": 17.85,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.015199,
        "positive_rate": 0.538462,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.538462,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00568,
        "regime_survival": 0.384615,
        "best_return": 0.218654,
        "worst_return": -0.165527,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.047947,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015864,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.24709,
        "worst_return": -0.196402,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.09526,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.083245,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.448523,
        "worst_return": -0.026687,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.169473,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.163457,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.266786,
        "worst_return": 0.043877,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.028179,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05597,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.048675,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.043438,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.01747,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.165527,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.048719,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.099474,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033987,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 3240066.65,
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        "fair_value": 15.43048,
        "relative_strength": 7.214972,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
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          20.71,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.110001,
        "volume": 4623746,
        "typical_volume": 3244310.7,
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        "fair_value": 15.503749,
        "relative_strength": 13.398149,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.785945,
        "energy": 36.655429,
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          21.101334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 21.07,
        "volume": 5212472,
        "typical_volume": 3332835.45,
        "trend": 21.301833,
        "fair_value": 15.570527,
        "relative_strength": 6.00208,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.878254,
        "energy": 23.407543,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.170667,
          21.468909,
          22.498762,
          22.174581
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 18.540001,
        "volume": 5029929,
        "typical_volume": 3373724.3,
        "trend": 21.356333,
        "fair_value": 15.620298,
        "relative_strength": -8.956039,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -42.087529,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}