{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adfdc7cf-c36f-4a44-b968-66fa06bc2fce", "symbol": "GRVY", "name": "Gravity Co Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.838, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.623, "architecture_energy": 10.863, "architecture_maturity": 17.655, "architecture_confidence": 46.552, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.25, "rotation_up": 33.23, "upward_expansion": 37.0, "deceleration": 66.64, "rotation_down": 36.62, "downward_expansion": 18.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.044, 63.866545, 63.291571, 63.206194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 68.12, "trend_reference": 63.486333, "distance_from_trend": 0.072987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.266763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043717, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.284359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042721, "excess_performance": -0.230174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043717, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084491, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042721, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682704, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347315, "relative_activity": 1.543718, "balance": 0.682704, "dry_up": 0.864198, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080616, "annualized_volatility": 0.353067, "from_high_reference": -0.088696, "from_low_reference": 0.248992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.486333, "fair_value_reference": 65.266763, "structural_low": 56.24, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.013521, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.04374, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.189895, "worst_return": -0.244778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.115538, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.152486, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.021549, "worst_return": -0.395999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078116, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.202547, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.021549, 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"Established", "return": -0.000831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034787, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018307, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027558, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107642, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 65.83, "volume": 285689, "typical_volume": 132380.1, "trend": 60.907333, "fair_value": 84.937564, "relative_strength": 6.242291, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 64.73, 63.490727, 62.986762, 63.090022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.98, "volume": 156224, "typical_volume": 214615.9, "trend": 62.886333, "fair_value": 65.452981, "relative_strength": -10.446246, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.115856, "energy": 20.03637, "activity_lines": [ 64.129333, 63.268364, 62.916, 63.041935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.5, "volume": 144827, "typical_volume": 214933.35, "trend": 63.013, "fair_value": 65.362212, "relative_strength": -9.326617, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.109445, "energy": 5.339602, "activity_lines": [ 63.018, 63.022, 62.814, 62.952495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.95, "volume": 129364, "typical_volume": 213239.45, "trend": 63.124667, "fair_value": 65.293301, "relative_strength": -8.77946, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.882642, "energy": 16.565672, "activity_lines": [ 62.324667, 62.878545, 62.762619, 62.883914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.12, "volume": 347315, "typical_volume": 224986.1, "trend": 63.486333, "fair_value": 65.266763, "relative_strength": -4.284359, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.623123, "energy": 10.862644, "activity_lines": [ 64.044, 63.866545, 63.291571, 63.206194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }