{ "ticker": { "uuid": "adffb94a-7175-4961-99d7-7984332855df", "symbol": "EXXARO", "name": "Exxaro Tiles Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.979, "architecture_energy": 61.197, "architecture_maturity": 64.414, "architecture_confidence": 82.253, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.63, "rotation_up": 11.55, "upward_expansion": 12.71, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 71.69, "downward_expansion": 90.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.274, 6.470727, 6.629476, 6.728172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 6.16, "trend_reference": 6.884, "distance_from_trend": -0.105171, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.963699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.312784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.09163, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128713, "excess_performance": -0.085004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075104, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.312784, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.973016, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1319855, "relative_activity": 0.967648, "balance": 1.973016, "dry_up": 1.160202, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089036, "annualized_volatility": 0.500067, "from_high_reference": -0.403679, "from_low_reference": 0.028381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.884, "fair_value_reference": 8.963699, "structural_low": 5.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006849, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.025266, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.529231, "worst_return": -0.206813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001429, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.053306, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.398714, "worst_return": -0.171233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07953, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.039566, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.459807, "worst_return": -0.238271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.289812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201306, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069149, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.278135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093202, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03073, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.140865, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.585, "volume": 4770220, "typical_volume": 6434258.0, "trend": 11.802, "fair_value": 12.306095, "relative_strength": -8.261385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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"activity_lines": [ 6.56, 6.686909, 6.753905, 6.839505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.06, "volume": 2043814, "typical_volume": 1348866.65, "trend": 6.939, "fair_value": 9.001647, "relative_strength": -17.19288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.923369, "energy": 62.546017, "activity_lines": [ 6.374, 6.565273, 6.685333, 6.77843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.16, "volume": 1319855, "typical_volume": 1363983.25, "trend": 6.884, "fair_value": 8.963699, "relative_strength": -16.09163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.979145, "energy": 61.197052, "activity_lines": [ 6.274, 6.470727, 6.629476, 6.728172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }