{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae0320b7-4d03-4252-b96b-8ed106d1bec4", "symbol": "TC", "name": "TuanChe ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.295, "architecture_energy": 87.298, "architecture_maturity": 84.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.293, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 9.26, "upward_expansion": 21.06, "deceleration": 37.49, "rotation_down": 83.23, "downward_expansion": 99.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.018667, 3.3131, 5.671257, 7.019074 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.91, "trend_reference": 8.598197, "distance_from_trend": -0.77786, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.779862, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.943457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -84.828273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.84634, "excess_performance": -1.033793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.77786, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.943457, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164763, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.848283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.495368, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.84634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.174392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1886825, "relative_activity": 0.347924, "balance": 0.174392, "dry_up": 0.980326, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.825783, "annualized_volatility": 1.449919, "from_high_reference": -0.91496, "from_low_reference": 0.281879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.598197, "fair_value_reference": 33.779862, "structural_low": 1.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.053738, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.073903, "regime_survival": 0.844444, "best_return": 0.564706, "worst_return": -0.789998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.141334, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.14343, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.732984, "worst_return": -0.714146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.063415, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.227187, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 2.135168, "worst_return": -0.620639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.315556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.520559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.02657, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.250905, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.598263, "energy": 97.057582, "activity_lines": [ 4.903313, 6.666784, 8.097779, 8.844665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.89, "volume": 2016973, "typical_volume": 4462431.05, "trend": 9.148837, "fair_value": 37.221272, "relative_strength": -85.388087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.54734, "energy": 95.715689, "activity_lines": [ 3.439993, 5.595962, 7.415227, 8.359107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.3, "volume": 16062650, "typical_volume": 5265084.5, "trend": 8.98917, "fair_value": 35.853324, "relative_strength": -81.492341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.416234, "energy": 90.809236, "activity_lines": [ 2.620667, 4.753129, 6.816198, 7.917246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.96, "volume": 1299154, "typical_volume": 5329141.75, "trend": 8.802503, "fair_value": 34.746657, "relative_strength": -83.962749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.193422, "energy": 89.690029, "activity_lines": [ 2.134667, 3.971115, 6.225833, 7.463752 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.91, "volume": 1886825, "typical_volume": 5423096.05, "trend": 8.598197, "fair_value": 33.779862, "relative_strength": -84.828273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.295031, "energy": 87.297783, "activity_lines": [ 2.018667, 3.3131, 5.671257, 7.019074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }