{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae04ab97-e068-48b9-8bc4-235cba5e8a79", "symbol": "EX34", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Real Estate UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.837, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.356, "architecture_energy": 45.362, "architecture_maturity": 9.992, "architecture_confidence": 50.743, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.02, "rotation_up": 65.17, "upward_expansion": 59.96, "deceleration": 22.79, "rotation_down": 21.06, "downward_expansion": 15.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.407733, 14.312291, 14.117743, 14.073471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 14.436, "trend_reference": 14.085267, "distance_from_trend": 0.024901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.789269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046901, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.915009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008101, "excess_performance": -0.166146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024901, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011776, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03381, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013551, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008101, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.632022, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025098, "annualized_volatility": 0.20894, "from_high_reference": -0.05684, "from_low_reference": 0.129047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.085267, "fair_value_reference": 13.789269, "structural_low": 12.786, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006012, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.068475, "worst_return": -0.097535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020161, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.09962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007465, "worst_return": -0.147726, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.047275, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.139573, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.030146, "worst_return": -0.157045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-06-26", "close": 14.276, "volume": 154, "typical_volume": 1055.1, "trend": 13.936667, "fair_value": 13.699538, "relative_strength": -17.028873, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.64162, "energy": 6.581394, "activity_lines": [ 13.918533, 13.836036, 13.855981, 13.926895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.444, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1055.1, "trend": 13.9646, "fair_value": 13.719115, "relative_strength": -17.452278, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.760368, "energy": 27.769959, "activity_lines": [ 14.110667, 13.949818, 13.900467, 13.959626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.276, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1055.1, "trend": 13.997, "fair_value": 13.733513, "relative_strength": -16.819016, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.179196, "energy": 39.826643, "activity_lines": [ 14.215733, 14.025636, 13.929657, 13.979716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.33, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1055.1, "trend": 14.0258, "fair_value": 13.746205, "relative_strength": -14.381578, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.605925, "energy": 48.756948, "activity_lines": [ 14.287733, 14.104109, 13.966895, 14.0012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.352, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1055.1, "trend": 14.050733, "fair_value": 13.759077, "relative_strength": -14.93821, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.049427, "energy": 51.321553, "activity_lines": [ 14.338133, 14.176582, 14.010876, 14.022245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.486, "volume": 2104, "typical_volume": 1160.3, "trend": 14.077267, "fair_value": 13.774244, "relative_strength": -13.624688, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.917042, "energy": 52.203426, "activity_lines": [ 14.388267, 14.255309, 14.068162, 14.050327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.436, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 832.25, "trend": 14.085267, "fair_value": 13.789269, "relative_strength": -15.915009, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.356163, "energy": 45.36152, "activity_lines": [ 14.407733, 14.312291, 14.117743, 14.073471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }