{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae078145-64f0-4612-a8d0-5ef09eb2bf09", "symbol": "IDN", "name": "Intellicheck Mobilisa Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.854, "architecture_energy": 70.801, "architecture_maturity": 48.696, "architecture_confidence": 95.936, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 25.25, "upward_expansion": 16.53, "deceleration": 39.84, "rotation_down": 58.35, "downward_expansion": 92.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.771333, 3.898, 4.512143, 4.902989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.93, "trend_reference": 5.253667, "distance_from_trend": -0.251951, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.680141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.049134, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204453, "excess_performance": -0.391907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.251951, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126137, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.007393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.370491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.457377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 864529, "relative_activity": 0.403913, "balance": 0.530848, "dry_up": 0.475921, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157052, "annualized_volatility": 1.097912, "from_high_reference": -0.567181, "from_low_reference": 0.094708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.253667, "fair_value_reference": 3.680141, "structural_low": 3.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.009249, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.039188, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.988571, "worst_return": -0.211982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.122661, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.038536, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.586957, "worst_return": -0.457353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044898, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095313, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.524804, "worst_return": -0.541053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039301, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.379085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.184692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.83477, "energy": 60.58606, "activity_lines": [ 4.168667, 4.249091, 5.162619, 5.358774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.73, "volume": 1368015, "typical_volume": 2233101.75, "trend": 5.540333, "fair_value": 3.658571, "relative_strength": -39.278744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.123936, "energy": 66.612303, "activity_lines": [ 4.025333, 4.104182, 4.992238, 5.235183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.63, "volume": 1158062, "typical_volume": 2256973.7, "trend": 5.439333, "fair_value": 3.665141, "relative_strength": -39.446654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.066374, "energy": 75.718122, "activity_lines": [ 3.872667, 4.007455, 4.817714, 5.111935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.61, "volume": 684013, "typical_volume": 2269167.3, "trend": 5.339333, "fair_value": 3.671423, "relative_strength": -39.647442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.118281, "energy": 75.591857, "activity_lines": [ 3.744, 3.916364, 4.647095, 4.993914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.93, "volume": 864529, "typical_volume": 2140384.0, "trend": 5.253667, "fair_value": 3.680141, "relative_strength": -37.049134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.853945, "energy": 70.801022, "activity_lines": [ 3.771333, 3.898, 4.512143, 4.902989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }