{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae0ce65c-55a7-4e76-89ed-6408e3e465e1", "symbol": "WA1", "name": "WA1 Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.057, "architecture_energy": 49.01, "architecture_maturity": 71.705, "architecture_confidence": 94.181, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.7, "rotation_up": 20.39, "upward_expansion": 6.81, "deceleration": 55.83, "rotation_down": 57.97, "downward_expansion": 80.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.590667, 11.8, 12.669, 13.292688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.45, "trend_reference": 14.243333, "distance_from_trend": -0.125907, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.050128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113887, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.139745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181997, "excess_performance": -0.245703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113887, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181997, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.303445, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1228983, "relative_activity": 1.375937, "balance": 0.303445, "dry_up": 1.085269, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109546, "annualized_volatility": 0.487058, "from_high_reference": -0.441203, "from_low_reference": 0.206395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.243333, "fair_value_reference": 14.050128, "structural_low": 10.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02881, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.034955, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.176781, "worst_return": -0.189021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018782, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013379, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.495163, "worst_return": -0.074483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.317057, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.271427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.816183, "worst_return": -0.182069, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.067931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018917, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091755, "active": 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15.272667, "fair_value": 13.910321, "relative_strength": -24.885056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.104115, "energy": 67.383028, "activity_lines": [ 12.278, 12.733455, 13.551476, 14.186602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.17, "volume": 1069494, "typical_volume": 1035884.9, "trend": 15.035, "fair_value": 13.944167, "relative_strength": -30.839891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.405814, "energy": 67.693951, "activity_lines": [ 11.894, 12.340909, 13.269524, 13.921914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 610126, "typical_volume": 1031491.05, "trend": 14.753, "fair_value": 13.974808, "relative_strength": -29.909432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.508196, "energy": 56.479202, "activity_lines": [ 11.620667, 12.037091, 13.020714, 13.674495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.86, "volume": 968832, "typical_volume": 1007725.45, "trend": 14.475, "fair_value": 14.005769, "relative_strength": -33.184712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.647235, "energy": 62.561638, "activity_lines": [ 11.325333, 11.743273, 12.760762, 13.423333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.45, "volume": 1228983, "typical_volume": 893196.9, "trend": 14.243333, "fair_value": 14.050128, "relative_strength": -25.139745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.057104, "energy": 49.009739, "activity_lines": [ 11.590667, 11.8, 12.669, 13.292688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }