{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae0e881e-8ffb-4a86-8253-d0a22362d0eb", "symbol": "688165", "name": "EFORT Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.977, "architecture_energy": 50.059, "architecture_maturity": 8.371, "architecture_confidence": 79.023, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.56, "rotation_up": 11.8, "upward_expansion": 10.71, "deceleration": 38.71, "rotation_down": 64.26, "downward_expansion": 79.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.044667, 18.179091, 18.750429, 18.878473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.99, "trend_reference": 19.546667, "distance_from_trend": -0.079638, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.553654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.584284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.202924, "excess_performance": -0.15972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043596, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.106077, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44658457, "relative_activity": 0.914873, "balance": 1.106077, "dry_up": 1.033803, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170992, "annualized_volatility": 0.728301, "from_high_reference": -0.391201, "from_low_reference": 0.19218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.546667, "fair_value_reference": 17.553654, "structural_low": 15.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.03231, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.005772, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.220779, "worst_return": -0.130522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.034283, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041873, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.457181, "worst_return": -0.21988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012475, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019946, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 3.224516, "worst_return": -0.184047, "sufficient": 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"direction": 10.004853, "energy": 11.446524, "activity_lines": [ 20.547333, 20.374727, 19.559333, 19.736129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 65465566, "typical_volume": 47204939.55, "trend": 20.106333, "fair_value": 17.446603, "relative_strength": -17.433961, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.10474, "energy": 19.46923, "activity_lines": [ 19.446666, 19.782, 19.366286, 19.530516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.18, "volume": 50028189, "typical_volume": 47691763.05, "trend": 19.961333, "fair_value": 17.469551, "relative_strength": -26.719041, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.207147, "energy": 39.090276, "activity_lines": [ 17.893333, 18.898182, 19.013143, 19.212688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.530001, "volume": 41703391, "typical_volume": 48167027.45, "trend": 19.739, "fair_value": 17.505128, "relative_strength": -19.87551, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.741779, "energy": 46.547596, "activity_lines": [ 17.18, 18.355273, 18.806476, 18.991312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.99, "volume": 44658457, "typical_volume": 48813823.6, "trend": 19.546667, "fair_value": 17.553654, "relative_strength": -14.584284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.97666, "energy": 50.058874, "activity_lines": [ 17.044667, 18.179091, 18.750429, 18.878473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }