{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae117be9-3175-4fb8-b1f7-e776608a9de2", "symbol": "GNG", "name": "GR Engineering Services Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.79, "architecture_energy": 55.107, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.762, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.85, "rotation_up": 64.13, "upward_expansion": 77.91, "deceleration": 59.17, "rotation_down": 15.61, "downward_expansion": 6.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.655333, 5.486364, 5.326476, 5.081532 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.04, "trend_reference": 4.785408, "distance_from_trend": 0.26217, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.926181, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.064124, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.611161, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.501559, "excess_performance": 0.437854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.26217, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.064124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.266192, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.296112, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074589, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.501559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.405556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 851095, "relative_activity": 0.847368, "balance": 2.405556, "dry_up": 1.169335, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077305, "annualized_volatility": 0.493692, "from_high_reference": -0.027375, "from_low_reference": 0.880372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.785408, "fair_value_reference": 2.926181, "structural_low": 3.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043165, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.047037, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.209059, "worst_return": -0.056701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.131443, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.160328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302817, "worst_return": -0.080752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.18428, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.189661, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.555883, "worst_return": 0.087462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.607157, 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1076364.4, "trend": 4.629144, "fair_value": 2.849573, "relative_strength": 16.274431, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.456002, "energy": 29.583192, "activity_lines": [ 5.069333, 5.264182, 5.060667, 4.864635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.65, "volume": 962954, "typical_volume": 1031007.5, "trend": 4.675909, "fair_value": 2.87422, "relative_strength": 30.09203, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.301167, "energy": 27.631868, "activity_lines": [ 5.230667, 5.323273, 5.142857, 4.930497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.7, "volume": 1333414, "typical_volume": 1014247.6, "trend": 4.723039, "fair_value": 2.899188, "relative_strength": 27.249712, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.673382, "energy": 38.381806, "activity_lines": [ 5.406, 5.378909, 5.222571, 4.996567 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.04, "volume": 851095, "typical_volume": 1004397.75, "trend": 4.785408, "fair_value": 2.926181, "relative_strength": 29.611161, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.789681, "energy": 55.106563, "activity_lines": [ 5.655333, 5.486364, 5.326476, 5.081532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }