{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae11a649-49fe-4a44-9b09-3b58f7276c6e", "symbol": "MCHP", "name": "Microchip Technology Incorporated", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.341, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.455, "architecture_energy": 28.226, "architecture_maturity": 48.123, "architecture_confidence": 80.962, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.5, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 43.8, "deceleration": 84.52, "rotation_down": 49.36, "downward_expansion": 37.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.037335, 73.223819, 75.482315, 72.855911 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 73.230003, "trend_reference": 69.538776, "distance_from_trend": 0.053082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.945794, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.563234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.174511, "excess_performance": 0.000264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053082, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128933, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.174511, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.55217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1633, "relative_activity": 6.085336, "balance": 3.55217, "dry_up": 3.020309, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076501, "annualized_volatility": 0.454175, "from_high_reference": -0.181283, "from_low_reference": 0.70582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.538776, "fair_value_reference": 63.945794, "structural_low": 52.626915, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.005302, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013795, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.384287, "worst_return": -0.154056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022724, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.029257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.525361, "worst_return": -0.169757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011455, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.193053, "worst_return": -0.312084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096847, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155791, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027466, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199654, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": 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68.398231, "fair_value": 63.996265, "relative_strength": -5.153816, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.560265, "energy": 22.580156, "activity_lines": [ 75.520001, 78.129175, 76.371655, 72.786282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.599998, "volume": 526, "typical_volume": 172.6, "trend": 68.893003, "fair_value": 63.947474, "relative_strength": -5.936653, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.793436, "energy": 21.812403, "activity_lines": [ 72.783334, 76.335637, 76.171359, 72.863816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.760002, "volume": 502, "typical_volume": 186.7, "trend": 69.21953, "fair_value": 63.918013, "relative_strength": -12.158879, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.730991, "energy": 34.617305, "activity_lines": [ 69.564668, 73.866001, 75.448841, 72.59717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.230003, "volume": 1633, "typical_volume": 268.35, "trend": 69.538776, "fair_value": 63.945794, "relative_strength": -3.563234, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.455165, "energy": 28.226259, "activity_lines": [ 70.037335, 73.223819, 75.482315, 72.855911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }