{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae164bb6-09f1-45b1-acc8-647df36670a6", "symbol": "SXLC", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Communication Services Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.38, "architecture_energy": 28.589, "architecture_maturity": 12.509, "architecture_confidence": 53.963, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.71, "rotation_up": 20.46, "upward_expansion": 9.61, "deceleration": 57.4, "rotation_down": 57.09, "downward_expansion": 48.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.155133, 45.350545, 46.091166, 46.115954 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.040001, "trend_reference": 46.025166, "distance_from_trend": 0.000322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.028288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.585398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024112, "excess_performance": -0.09255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003537, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210678, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118574, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024112, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.022274, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14404, "relative_activity": 0.723437, "balance": 2.022274, "dry_up": 1.50619, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031536, "annualized_volatility": 0.169252, "from_high_reference": -0.060696, "from_low_reference": 0.102306 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.025166, "fair_value_reference": 38.028288, "structural_low": 43.133999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024037, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.008643, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.081, "worst_return": -0.008677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.031266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.06319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161251, "worst_return": -0.098719, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041674, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259158, "worst_return": -0.175811, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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45.839867, 46.363236, 46.619695, 46.390458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.641998, "volume": 24460, "typical_volume": 16683.1, "trend": 46.087566, "fair_value": 37.680314, "relative_strength": -9.382538, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.717682, "energy": 31.965689, "activity_lines": [ 45.774466, 46.130254, 46.539542, 46.362759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.771999, "volume": 6675, "typical_volume": 16745.7, "trend": 46.0416, "fair_value": 37.787667, "relative_strength": -12.763853, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.945951, "energy": 47.237814, "activity_lines": [ 45.121866, 45.605381, 46.281137, 46.213367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.521, "volume": 74417, "typical_volume": 19966.2, "trend": 46.0293, "fair_value": 37.902923, "relative_strength": -11.788097, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.785793, "energy": 38.094669, "activity_lines": [ 44.874999, 45.304199, 46.109404, 46.115264 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.040001, "volume": 14404, "typical_volume": 19910.5, "trend": 46.025166, "fair_value": 38.028288, "relative_strength": -9.585398, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.380442, "energy": 28.589319, "activity_lines": [ 45.155133, 45.350545, 46.091166, 46.115954 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }