{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae1da6e9-86e0-4b94-ad7d-46892c965f62", "symbol": "WHEA", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Health Care UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.151, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.077, "architecture_energy": 55.64, "architecture_maturity": 21.219, "architecture_confidence": 65.825, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.34, "rotation_up": 66.58, "upward_expansion": 84.17, "deceleration": 62.02, "rotation_down": 17.2, "downward_expansion": 8.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.128665, 60.682544, 58.946047, 58.241957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 61.419998, "trend_reference": 57.794, "distance_from_trend": 0.06274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.960353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097563, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.954051, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051532, "excess_performance": -0.119359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06274, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097563, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126931, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5722, "relative_activity": 0.216508, "balance": 0.81478, "dry_up": 0.302627, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030146, "annualized_volatility": 0.159461, "from_high_reference": -0.033973, "from_low_reference": 0.238681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.794, "fair_value_reference": 55.960353, "structural_low": 53.529999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.000397, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.004223, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.077403, "worst_return": -0.065579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.019724, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.025707, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.055923, "worst_return": -0.067204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.068826, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.072111, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.082221, "worst_return": -0.02966, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.432068, "energy": 76.462915, "activity_lines": [ 60.223332, 58.848545, 57.405428, 57.318021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.060001, "volume": 8427, "typical_volume": 25918.65, "trend": 57.503, "fair_value": 55.78484, "relative_strength": -4.514527, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.879171, "energy": 86.040464, "activity_lines": [ 60.760666, 59.470363, 57.802428, 57.55514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.419998, "volume": 8852, "typical_volume": 26152.9, "trend": 57.629333, "fair_value": 55.844071, "relative_strength": -3.695777, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.823758, "energy": 85.746571, "activity_lines": [ 61.185999, 60.024363, 58.224428, 57.807849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.669998, "volume": 8991, "typical_volume": 26280.3, "trend": 57.732, "fair_value": 55.90375, "relative_strength": -5.428126, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.198776, "energy": 57.445495, "activity_lines": [ 61.033999, 60.323454, 58.557857, 58.004021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.419998, "volume": 5722, "typical_volume": 26428.55, "trend": 57.794, "fair_value": 55.960353, "relative_strength": -6.954051, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.076503, "energy": 55.639505, "activity_lines": [ 61.128665, 60.682544, 58.946047, 58.241957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }