{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae1e7f17-a8d0-4c5f-95f7-e9c85c1b6884", "symbol": "FID", "name": "First Trust S&P International Dividend Aristocrats ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.704, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.591, "architecture_energy": 86.3, "architecture_maturity": 8.47, "architecture_confidence": 64.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.56, "rotation_up": 82.52, "upward_expansion": 94.63, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 8.57, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.50282, 22.17928, 21.940346, 21.78709 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.855, "trend_reference": 21.645606, "distance_from_trend": 0.055872, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.261936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324011, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.124562, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.044704, "excess_performance": -0.14275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055872, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028012, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018064, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057333, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.47828, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59071, "relative_activity": 0.655283, "balance": 2.47828, "dry_up": 0.593542, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018932, "annualized_volatility": 0.120845, "from_high_reference": -0.001965, "from_low_reference": 0.213774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.645606, "fair_value_reference": 17.261936, "structural_low": 20.406665, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.006697, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009184, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.058557, "worst_return": -0.048171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032751, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.094236, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.107663, "worst_return": -0.064003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018039, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.17807, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.111904, "worst_return": -0.006303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.705265, "energy": 38.069806, "activity_lines": [ 21.83547, 21.770601, 21.643432, 21.583608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.28, "volume": 54032, "typical_volume": 101947.3, "trend": 21.508776, "fair_value": 17.147487, "relative_strength": -1.418568, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.605105, "energy": 62.741762, "activity_lines": [ 22.019127, 21.868948, 21.721134, 21.636917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.555, "volume": 46932, "typical_volume": 96111.45, "trend": 21.573536, "fair_value": 17.203549, "relative_strength": -0.676717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.815348, "energy": 77.639199, "activity_lines": [ 22.246307, 22.004165, 21.820889, 21.704415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.855, "volume": 59071, "typical_volume": 90145.75, "trend": 21.645606, "fair_value": 17.261936, "relative_strength": -4.124562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.590892, "energy": 86.300163, "activity_lines": [ 22.50282, 22.17928, 21.940346, 21.78709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }