{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae20de82-e663-4e3c-a342-4b97d9d2513c", "symbol": "WMS", "name": "Advanced Drainage Systems Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.76, "architecture_energy": 17.674, "architecture_maturity": 20.675, "architecture_confidence": 65.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.0, "rotation_up": 16.74, "upward_expansion": 20.64, "deceleration": 59.35, "rotation_down": 45.58, "downward_expansion": 54.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.984, 145.027636, 143.618343, 144.457372 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 143.95, "trend_reference": 147.502309, "distance_from_trend": -0.024083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 138.159063, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.469284, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.177122, "excess_performance": -0.302747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011362, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041915, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177122, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754378, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4693979, "relative_activity": 1.107615, "balance": 0.754378, "dry_up": 0.795103, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079878, "annualized_volatility": 0.358157, "from_high_reference": -0.195179, "from_low_reference": 0.126004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.502309, "fair_value_reference": 138.159063, "structural_low": 127.841513, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.036961, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.01969, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.152825, "worst_return": -0.124827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015653, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.020587, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.268015, "worst_return": -0.33165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088265, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.049779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.241364, "worst_return": -0.244806, "sufficient": true }, { 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15.105496, "activity_lines": [ 148.020667, 143.27627, 142.993812, 145.735065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 150.47, "volume": 3143791, "typical_volume": 4472859.95, "trend": 148.608978, "fair_value": 137.66739, "relative_strength": -6.250716, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.457699, "energy": 26.548681, "activity_lines": [ 150.250667, 144.885689, 143.543108, 145.857669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 147.55, "volume": 2993982, "typical_volume": 4470119.5, "trend": 148.589546, "fair_value": 137.849591, "relative_strength": -6.791196, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.239173, "energy": 25.193004, "activity_lines": [ 150.152667, 145.902801, 143.908152, 145.789348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 141.84, "volume": 2978560, "typical_volume": 4398617.0, "trend": 148.342542, "fair_value": 137.986784, "relative_strength": -9.908482, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.307992, "energy": 13.376566, "activity_lines": [ 147.311333, 145.798808, 143.8406, 145.353893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 138.48, "volume": 2811790, "typical_volume": 4251095.3, "trend": 147.983538, "fair_value": 138.051505, "relative_strength": -13.006494, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.171516, "energy": 16.488679, "activity_lines": [ 143.702, 144.967548, 143.472357, 144.7176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.95, "volume": 4693979, "typical_volume": 4237913.85, "trend": 147.502309, "fair_value": 138.159063, "relative_strength": -12.469284, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.760317, "energy": 17.674159, "activity_lines": [ 142.984, 145.027636, 143.618343, 144.457372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }