{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ae216da1-4162-4f4f-871b-f60a8975dff3", "symbol": "PTM", "name": "Platinum Group Metals Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.532, "architecture_energy": 48.401, "architecture_maturity": 78.726, "architecture_confidence": 90.803, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.29, "rotation_up": 25.55, "upward_expansion": 7.08, "deceleration": 59.92, "rotation_down": 51.98, "downward_expansion": 80.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.894, 1.912545, 2.05581, 2.233247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.1, "trend_reference": 2.574667, "distance_from_trend": -0.18436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.169167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.244888, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.369369, "excess_performance": -0.489791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18436, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168913, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.369369, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 586500, "relative_activity": 1.230243, "balance": 0.544108, "dry_up": 0.798557, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124542, "annualized_volatility": 0.741443, "from_high_reference": -0.615385, "from_low_reference": 0.272727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.574667, "fair_value_reference": 2.169167, "structural_low": 1.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.031952, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.042352, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.390805, "worst_return": -0.285124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.075492, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.080573, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.257669, "worst_return": -0.325123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.094258, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.110293, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.317919, "worst_return": -0.490148, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086022, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149425, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168421, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.87, "volume": 618700, "typical_volume": 655400.0, "trend": 2.798, "fair_value": 2.166987, "relative_strength": -40.285516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.37455, "energy": 68.678601, "activity_lines": [ 1.972, 2.055091, 2.218619, 2.452495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.72, "volume": 426800, "typical_volume": 593635.0, "trend": 2.732667, "fair_value": 2.166218, "relative_strength": -44.514272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.795986, "energy": 69.309351, "activity_lines": [ 1.878667, 1.978, 2.153714, 2.382946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.8, "volume": 212300, "typical_volume": 534405.0, "trend": 2.667333, "fair_value": 2.166218, "relative_strength": -41.697674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.705458, "energy": 60.746926, "activity_lines": [ 1.836667, 1.928727, 2.106238, 2.322774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 297200, "typical_volume": 494740.0, "trend": 2.620333, "fair_value": 2.166603, "relative_strength": -41.13979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.507138, "energy": 59.487613, "activity_lines": [ 1.812667, 1.889455, 2.064667, 2.266817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.1, "volume": 586500, "typical_volume": 476735.0, "trend": 2.574667, "fair_value": 2.169167, "relative_strength": -33.244888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.532232, "energy": 48.40136, "activity_lines": [ 1.894, 1.912545, 2.05581, 2.233247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }